2025-06-13-Jefferies-图尔马林（TOU）_关于看好加拿大西部天然气需求的Kiawah评论_8页_126kb

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Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU CN) - Equity Research Summary

Equity Research Highlights

Rating: Buy (with 12% upside potential based on price target).
Current Price: C$65.89, with a price target of C$74.00, representing a 12% increase.

Key Bullish Reasons

Gas Demand Growth: Alberta's gas demand is expected to rise by >1 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2028 from data centers, oil sands expansions, and ResCom growth, partly due to AESO allocating 1.2 GW to data centers and plans for >16 GW in queue.
LNG Egress Capacity: Optimism surrounds increased LNG capacity with LNG Canada Phase 1 (1.8 bcf/d), PRGT gas transmission progress (extension granted for environmental permit), and potential Phase 2 development (1.8 bcf/d) and Cedar LNG expansion (0.4 bcf/d).
Updated 5-Year Plan: Tourmaline expects to release a multi-year production plan in H2 2025, targeting ~850 mboe/d by 2030, including recent acquisitions (e.g., Saguaro Laprise-Conroy and SCR's Groundbirch) and infrastructure build-out in the NEBC Montney region.

Company Description

Tourmaline Oil Corp is a Canadian energy company headquartered in Calgary, focusing on natural gas, crude oil, and condensate exploration and production in Alberta Deep Basin, NEBC Montney, and Peace River.

Valuation and Risk Assessment

Valuation: Based on target EV/DACF multiple; price target derived from DCF and sum-of-parts analysis.
Key Risks: Delays or cost overruns in NEBC asset development, higher sustaining capital expenditure, lower well performance, and commodity price declines.
Downside Risks: Macroeconomic headwinds in oil, gas, or refining margins.
Market Cap: C$24.9B.

Analyst Input

Analysts: Roger Agarwal (Equity Associate) and Lloyd Byrne (Equity Analyst), certified that recommendations reflect their personal views and compensation not tied to specific ratings.

Disclaimer

This report is for Jefferies clients only; may not be relied upon due to costs, regulations, or uncertainties. Disclosure includes conflicts of interest, particularly where Jefferies acts as a financial advisor.

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