IMF-2021世界经济展望报告（英文）-2021.4-191页_4mb

World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries (April 2021)

Core Content Summary

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2021 focuses on managing divergent recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides a comprehensive analysis of global economic prospects, the impact of the pandemic, and the role of policy responses in mitigating long-term economic damage.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Economic Outlook

• Growth Projections: The global economy is expected to grow by 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, a stronger recovery than previously forecasted.
• Divergent Recoveries: Recovery speeds vary significantly across and within countries, driven by factors such as vaccine rollout, economic policy support, and structural vulnerabilities (e.g., reliance on tourism).
• Advanced Economies: The United States is projected to surpass its pre-pandemic GDP level in 2021, while many other advanced economies may only return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
• Emerging and Developing Economies: China returned to pre-pandemic GDP in 2020, but many other emerging and developing economies are not expected to do so until 2023 or later.

Medium-Term Economic Damage

• Persistent Output Losses: The pandemic is expected to cause medium-term output losses, with the global economy losing around 11% of pre-pandemic GDP by 2022.
• Income Losses: Emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) are projected to experience cumulative per capita income losses equivalent to 20% of 2019 levels, while advanced economies face smaller losses.
• Poverty and Undernourishment: The pandemic has reversed poverty reduction gains, with an estimated 95 million more people falling into extreme poverty in 2020 and 80 million more people undernourished.

Sectoral and Regional Impacts

• Sectoral Disruptions: The pandemic has had heterogeneous impacts across sectors, with tourism, hospitality, and education being particularly hard-hit.
• Labor Market Effects: Young workers and low-skilled workers have been disproportionately affected, leading to increased income inequality and higher unemployment rates in many regions.
• Female Employment: In emerging and developing economies, female employment rates remain lower than male rates, exacerbating gender disparities.

Policy Responses

• Policy Priorities: The WEO outlines three key phases of policy response:
  1. Phase 1: Escaping the Crisis – Immediate actions to stabilize the economy.
  2. Phase 2: Safeguarding the Recovery – Policies to protect the economic rebound.
  3. Phase 3: Investing in the Future – Long-term investments in growth and resilience.
• Fiscal and Monetary Support: Unprecedented fiscal and monetary support in 2020 helped prevent a worse economic outcome. Additional fiscal measures in some economies (e.g., the United States) further improve the outlook.
• Labor Market Policies: The report highlights the importance of job retention and worker reallocation policies to mitigate labor market scarring. These policies are expected to reduce the long-term impact of the crisis on employment and income.

Monetary Policy Spillovers

• Spillover Effects: Monetary policy in advanced economies has significant spillover effects on emerging markets, particularly through interest rates, bond yields, and exchange rates.
• Policy Rate Cuts: In emerging markets, policy rate cuts were implemented to support economic activity, especially in response to US monetary policy surprises.
• Asset Purchase Programs: These programs have been used in emerging markets to stabilize financial conditions, with varying degrees of effectiveness depending on policy frameworks and fiscal positions.

Uncertainties and Risks

• High Uncertainty: The outlook is highly uncertain, with downside risks including new virus variants that may evade vaccines and upside risks from accelerated vaccine distribution.
• Global Coordination: Divergent recovery paths may lead to wider income gaps between developing and advanced economies, and adverse spillovers for emerging markets if advanced economies tighten monetary policy too quickly.

Key Chapters Overview

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

• Discusses the divergent recoveries and the challenges for policy.
• Highlights the impact of the pandemic on GDP, inflation, and services trade.
• Notes that inflation pressures are expected to remain contained in most countries.
• Emphasizes the need for tailored policies based on the stages of the pandemic.

Chapter 2: After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

• Analyzes medium-term economic damage and output losses.
• Examines sectoral impacts and channels of economic damage.
• Discusses policies to limit persistent damage, including fiscal and labor market interventions.

Chapter 3: Recessions and Recoveries in Labor Markets

• Focuses on labor market transitions, inequality, and pandemic-induced disruptions.
• Highlights sectoral employment trends, automation risks, and the role of education and infrastructure.
• Notes that labor market policies can help reduce inequality and support employment.

Chapter 4: Shifting Gears: Monetary Policy Spillovers

• Explores the spillover effects of monetary policy from advanced economies to emerging markets.
• Discusses determinants of policy responses, including fiscal positions and policy frameworks.
• Warns of potential adverse spillovers if advanced economies tighten monetary policy too rapidly.

Additional Information

• Assumptions: The WEO assumes constant real effective exchange rates and specific oil and interest rate benchmarks.
• Data Sources: Data are based on IMF country desk analyses and consultations with member countries.
• Revisions and Corrections: The WEO data and analysis are subject to revisions and corrections as new information becomes available.
• Access: The report is available in print and digital formats, including ePub, enhanced PDF, and HTML, on the IMF eLibrary.

Conclusion

The WEO underscores the complex and uneven nature of the pandemic's economic impact, emphasizing the need for targeted policy responses and global coordination to address divergent recoveries and long-term economic scarring. While growth is expected to rebound, the medium-term challenges and risks of inequality remain significant, especially for low-income and emerging market economies.