2019世界经济形势与前景（英文版）_246页_15mb

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 is a comprehensive report published by the United Nations, jointly produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and five regional commissions (ECA, ECE, ECLAC, ESCAP, ESCWA), with contributions from UNWTO and the ILO. It provides an analysis of the global economic outlook, macroeconomic prospects, and regional developments for the period 2019–2020, focusing on the challenges and opportunities in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Main Views

Global Economic Outlook

• Global Growth Appears Robust: In 2017 and 2018, more than half of the world's economies experienced accelerated growth, with developed economies growing at 2.2% and East and South Asia developing economies growing at 5.8% and 5.6%, respectively.
• Risks and Vulnerabilities Rise: Despite the apparent growth, underlying risks and imbalances have increased, including financial vulnerabilities, trade tensions, and climate change impacts.
• Investment Drives Growth: Investment has become a more significant contributor to global economic growth.
• Employment Trends: Employment is rising, but job quality remains low in many regions.
• Commodity Exporters Face Challenges: Commodity-dependent economies, especially fuel exporters, continue to struggle with volatile prices and lingering impacts from the 2014/15 commodity market crash.
• Trade Tensions and Volatility: Global trade growth has moderated due to heightened trade tensions, with heterogeneous impacts on different sectors and firms.
• Financial Volatility: Financial market volatility has increased, and official development assistance (ODA) declined in 2017.

Macroeconomic Prospects and SDGs

• Need for Multilateral Cooperation: To achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, international cooperation and multilateralism are essential, especially in areas like climate action, sustainable finance, and inequality reduction.
• Revenue Mobilization: Strengthening revenue mobilization is critical for sustainable development.
• Climate Change Impacts: Climate change poses significant challenges to macroeconomic stability and growth, especially for vulnerable economies.
• Structural Challenges: Domestic structural issues, such as overreliance on commodities and inequality, must be addressed to support long-term development.

Regional Outlook

• Developed Economies:
  • The U.S. GDP growth is expected to moderate due to waning fiscal stimulus and rising capacity constraints.
  • Canada's housing market has cooled, but household debt remains a risk.
  • Japan's economy is at full capacity despite slower growth.
  • Australia and New Zealand maintain robust growth despite emerging uncertainties.
  • Europe is projected to have strong growth, though risks are shifting.
• Economies in Transition:
  • The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Georgia benefit from commodity price increases and remittances.
  • South-Eastern Europe shows positive economic trends continuing.
• Developing Economies:
  • Africa: Short-term outlook is improving, but medium-term vulnerabilities remain.
  • East Asia: Robust growth is expected, but downside risks are high.
  • South Asia: Economic outlooks are diverging due to short- and medium-term challenges.
  • Western Asia: A gradual recovery is anticipated as oil markets improve.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is expected to gradually pick up, but major risks persist.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The report incorporates data up to November 30, 2018.
• Forecasting Model: Forecasts are based on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) of UN/DESA.
• Contributors: The report was coordinated by Dawn Holland and includes contributions from numerous UN agencies and staff.
• Contact Information:
  • UN/DESA: Liu Zhenmin, undesa@un.org
  • UNCTAD: Mukhisa Kituyi, sgo@unctad.org
  • ECA: Vera Songwe, ecainfo@uneca.org
  • ECE: Olga Algayerova, unece_info@un.org
  • ECLAC: Alicia Barcena, se cepal@cepal.org
  • ESCAP: Armida Alisjahbana, escap-scas@un.org
  • ESCWA: Mounir Tabet, https://www.unescwa.org/contact
• ISBN: 978-92-1-109180-9
• Print ISSN: 1995-2074
• Online ISSN: 2411-8370
• Publication: United Nations publication, Sales No. E.19.II.C.1
• Copyright: 2019, United Nations

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The report highlights the importance of achieving the 17 SDGs, including:

• Ending poverty
• Reducing inequality
• Ending hunger and achieving food security
• Making cities inclusive and sustainable
• Ensuring healthy lives
• Promoting sustainable consumption and production
• Ensuring quality education
• Combating climate change
• Achieving gender equality
• Conserving oceans and marine resources
• Ensuring water and sanitation
• Protecting terrestrial ecosystems
• Ensuring access to affordable energy
• Promoting peaceful and inclusive societies
• Promoting sustainable economic growth
• Strengthening the global partnership for sustainable development

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for urgent and concrete policy actions to reduce risks, ensure sustainable growth, and support the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It emphasizes the importance of multilateral cooperation, sustainable finance, climate action, and addressing inequality as key strategies to achieve long-term economic and social stability.