2017世界经济展望（英文版）_302页_7mb

World Economic Outlook October 2017 Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2017 report focuses on the theme of "Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges". It provides an in-depth analysis of global economic conditions, wage dynamics in advanced economies, the impact of weather shocks on economic activity, and the cross-border effects of fiscal policy.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Economic Outlook: The global economy is in a cyclical upswing that has been strengthening since mid-2016. However, this growth is not uniform across all regions and economies, with long-term challenges such as structural issues and climate change posing significant risks.
• Policy Priorities: The report emphasizes the need for policies that promote sustainable growth, including managing fiscal and monetary policies, addressing labor market imbalances, and enhancing financial resilience.
• Fiscal Policy Spillovers: Fiscal policies in major economies like the United States, Europe, and China have cross-border impacts, influencing economic activity in other regions. These effects vary based on economic conditions, exchange rate regimes, and policy responses.
• Weather Shocks and Climate Change: Weather shocks, particularly temperature increases and natural disasters, have a substantial impact on economic activity, especially in low-income countries. The report outlines strategies for coping with these shocks, including policy buffers, structural reforms, and financial instruments.
• Wage Dynamics: Recent wage trends in advanced economies are influenced by labor market changes, including shifts in employment structures and nominal wage rigidities. These dynamics have implications for growth and inflation.
• Data and Methodologies: The report uses a combination of empirical analysis, model-based approaches, and statistical data to support its findings. It highlights the importance of data availability and the use of proxy estimates when complete data are not accessible.

Key Information

Global Prospects and Policies

• Recent Developments and Prospects: The global economy is recovering, but growth is uneven across regions. Advanced economies show signs of recovery, while emerging markets and developing economies face challenges related to capital flows, commodity prices, and external debt.
• The Forecast: The forecast suggests moderate global growth, with variations across regions and economies. Commodity-exporting countries are particularly affected by changes in commodity prices and terms of trade.
• Risks: The report identifies several risks, including the possibility of a global recession, deflation, and the sustainability of capital inflows to emerging markets.
• Policy Priorities: Policy recommendations include maintaining fiscal discipline, supporting labor market flexibility, and investing in infrastructure and innovation to enhance long-term growth potential.

Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies

• Wage Determination: The report provides a primer on wage determination, highlighting the role of labor market institutions and economic conditions.
• Drivers of Wage Dynamics: Recent wage changes are influenced by labor market shifts, including the rise in part-time employment and the impact of the global financial crisis.
• Policy Implications: The report suggests that wage dynamics should be monitored closely, as they have implications for inflation and growth. It also highlights the importance of labor market reforms and the role of financial integration in wage adjustments.

Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity

• Weather Shocks and Climate Change: Weather shocks, such as temperature increases and natural disasters, have significant macroeconomic impacts. These effects are more pronounced in low-income countries due to limited adaptive capacity.
• Macroeconomic Impact: Weather shocks can reduce output, productivity, and employment. They also affect international migration and financial markets.
• Coping Strategies: The report outlines various coping strategies, including the use of policy buffers, structural reforms, and financial instruments like insurance and catastrophe bonds.
• Long-Term Effects: A model-based analysis suggests that long-term temperature increases will have persistent negative effects on economic growth and development, particularly in vulnerable regions.

Cross-Border Impacts of Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Spillovers: Fiscal policy shocks in one country can have significant effects on other countries, especially those with strong trade and financial linkages.
• Transmission Mechanisms: The transmission of fiscal shocks depends on economic conditions, exchange rate regimes, and monetary policy responses.
• Fiscal Reforms: The report discusses the potential benefits of fiscal reforms, including tax adjustments and government investment, and their implications for global growth.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1.1: Overview of WEO projections, highlighting growth, inflation, and fiscal indicators.
• Table 1.3.1: Correlates of growth projections for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) from 2017 to 2022.
• Table 2.3.1: Analysis of pre-crisis financial vulnerabilities and post-crisis labor adjustments.
• Table 3.1.1: Characteristics of the average tropical cyclone by country group.
• Table 4.1.1: Response of recipient countries' trade balance and real exchange rate to US fiscal shocks.
• Figure 1.1: Global activity indicators, including GDP and employment trends.
• Figure 2.1: Distribution of labor market indicators, such as wage growth and employment shares.
• Figure 3.1: Average global temperature trends and their projections.
• Figure 4.1: Output gaps in selected countries, showing the impact of fiscal policy.

Assumptions and Conventions

• Exchange Rates: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at their average levels during July 20 to August 17, 2017, except for those in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II).
• Oil Prices: The average price of oil is assumed to remain at $50.28 per barrel in 2017 and $50.17 in 2018, with no real-term changes.
• Interest Rates: The six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) is assumed to average 1.4% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018, while the three-month euro deposit rate is assumed to average -0.3% in both years. The Japanese yen deposit rate is expected to be 0.1% in 2017 and 0.2% in 2018.
• Data Sources: Data are drawn from the WEO database and are subject to revisions and updates as new information becomes available. Some data are based on estimates when actual figures are not available.
• Reporting Periods: For some countries, data are reported in fiscal years rather than calendar years, with exceptions noted in the report.

Further Information and Data

• The WEO data and metadata are available through the IMF eLibrary and IMF website.
• The report includes detailed online tables of contents and annexes with additional data and methodologies.
• Usage Terms: The report provides terms and conditions for using the WEO database, available on the IMF Copyright and Usage website.
• Contact Information: Inquiries should be directed to the World Economic Studies Division at the IMF, with contact details provided for mail, fax, and online forums.

Conclusion

The WEO October 2017 report underscores the importance of addressing both short-term recovery and long-term sustainability in the global economy. It highlights the need for coordinated policy responses to weather shocks, fiscal spillovers, and wage dynamics, emphasizing the role of structural reforms and financial resilience in promoting sustainable growth.