2025-06-09-Bernstein-世界先进积体电路股份有限公司（5347）_快速解读_世界先进-月度销售追踪低于指引和市场预期_11页_349kb

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp. (5347.TT) - Market-Perform Analysis

Key Points

• Rating: Market-Perform
• Price Target: NT$93 per share
• Valuation:
  • Forward P/B: 3x expected price-to-book value (NT$31) in 2026 (Q5-Q8).
  • Dividend Yield: ~38%
  • EV/FCF: 15.1x / 8.5x (24A/25E)
  • Trailing P/B: ~2.4x (at NT$90.20 close)
• Sales Performance: 2Q25 guidance likely above street due to FX (see FX effects section). May sales missed expectations, 61% of midpoint guidance, below seasonality norms.
• Margin Pressures: The 12-inch Singapore fab (VSMC) is projected to cause significant financial burden and drag on margins (mid-to-high single-digit percentage drag 2026-2028).
• Growth:
  • PMIC expected to lead full-year growth due to geopolitical-driven customer shifts.
• FX Factors: May FX was close to company guidance, potentially providing a ~1% tailwind to results, explaining some but not all sales shortfall.
• Investment Outlook: Weighing near-term financial burden from VSMC against PMIC growth potential, higher dividend yield.

Risks

• Revenue: Growing competition pressure and demand uncertainty (especially for driver ICs migrating to 12").
• VSMC Fab: Slower-than-anticipated cost reduction or faster-than-expected revenue impact from the 12-inch fab.
• Geo-Political/Economic: Exchange rate fluctuations, changes in China's semiconductor policy/support (impacting growth/competition).