2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mali_Selected_Issues_48页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 15/340 on Mali

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of Mali's economic performance, focusing on growth, structural transformation, diversification, fiscal decentralization, labor taxation, and demographic trends. It is prepared by the IMF as part of a periodic consultation with Mali, based on available data up to November 16, 2015.

Main Points

A. Growth, Volatility, and Productivity

• Growth Performance: Mali's growth has been relatively weak and highly volatile compared to benchmark countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. Real per capita growth averaged only 1.4% over the past 25 years.
• Underperformance: Despite a similar per capita income level in 1990, Mali has not caught up with other countries, which are now more than twice as rich in PPP terms.
• Volatility: Mali's economy remains highly exposed to external shocks, such as droughts, contributing to its volatility.
• Factor Gaps: Low human capital accumulation and total factor productivity are key factors behind slow growth. Basic education and female labor participation rates are below SSA and Asian benchmarks.
• Business Environment: A challenging business climate hinders productive private sector activity, emphasizing the need for reforms in this area.

B. Recent Trends in the Structure of Output and Exports

• Output Structure: The agricultural and service sectors dominate Mali's economy, each accounting for around 40% of economic activity in 2013. The manufacturing and construction sectors are smaller, with the latter doubling its share.
• De-Industrialization: Mali's manufacturing sector has declined in share over the past two decades, contrasting with industrial expansion in benchmark countries.
• Export Diversification: Export product diversification has improved in recent years, approaching benchmark levels, but export quality remains stagnant.
• Export Partners: Export partner diversification has remained stable, with Mali appearing more diversified than its peers.
• Commodity Quality: The quality of commodity exports has declined over the past two decades, lagging behind benchmark countries.

C. Fostering Growth through Structural Transformation and Diversification

• Potential Benefits: Structural transformation and diversification could significantly boost growth and reduce volatility. A 1% reallocation of labor from agriculture to manufacturing could increase output by 0.3%, while a 1 percentage point shift could raise output by 2.8%.
• Export Diversification Impact: Increasing export diversification to benchmark levels could raise the growth rate by about 0.8 percentage points.
• Policy Focus: Policies should target weaknesses that hinder entry into new economic activities, including education, infrastructure, financial systems, and the business environment.
• Agriculture's Role: Agriculture remains a key sector for employment and output, with significant potential for productivity and quality improvements. Structural transformation within agriculture should be a priority.

D. Demographic Trends and Employment

• Young Population: Mali has one of the highest fertility rates in the world, resulting in a very young population (two-thirds under 25 in 2010).
• Demographic Dividend: A decline in fertility rates could lead to a larger working-age population, potentially boosting growth. A 1 percentage point increase in the working-age population could raise real GDP growth per capita by 0.5 percentage points.
• Challenges: If the labor market cannot absorb the growing workforce, many may be forced into low-productivity agriculture or unemployment, which could hinder productivity and social cohesion.
• Policy Implication: Policies should focus on improving access to contraception and enhancing the capacity of the labor market to absorb new entrants.

Key Information

• Growth Drivers: Labor and capital accumulation have been the primary drivers of growth, but human capital and productivity are lagging.
• Structural Transformation: Reallocation of resources from low-productivity sectors to high-productivity ones can enhance overall productivity and growth.
• Export Diversification: While export product diversification has improved, export quality and partner diversification remain suboptimal.
• Agricultural Reforms: Enhancing agricultural productivity and quality is crucial for growth, with several policy options suggested by technical partners.
• Fiscal Decentralization: The report highlights the need for assigning spending responsibilities, providing adequate resources, and improving intergovernmental transfers to subnational governments.
• Labor Taxation: High labor tax wedges may deter employment and affect the informal sector's competitiveness.
• Demographic Challenges: Rapid population growth presents both opportunities and risks, requiring targeted policy responses to ensure productive absorption of the labor force.

Conclusion

Mali faces significant challenges in achieving sustained economic growth due to low productivity, limited diversification, and a rapidly growing young population. Addressing these issues through structural transformation, education reforms, improved business environment, and fiscal decentralization could unlock substantial growth potential. The demographic dividend is a key opportunity, but it must be supported by effective labor market policies to ensure that the population's growth translates into economic benefits.