IMF国际货币组织全球-Gabon_Selected-Issues_65页_1mb

报告摘要

Gabon: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This IMF Country Report on Gabon focuses on improving governance to achieve higher and more inclusive growth, as well as revenue-friendly diversification and equitable fiscal consolidation. It evaluates the economic impact of governance reforms and highlights institutional weaknesses in public financial management (PFM) and the business environment.

Main Views and Key Information

A. Introduction

Gabon is one of Africa's richest countries, with a per capita GDP of over $7,500 in 2018, but it still faces significant development challenges.
Despite a rich natural resource base, the benefits of growth are not evenly distributed, with a third of citizens living below the poverty line and a high youth unemployment rate.
Weak governance, corruption, and an unattractive business environment are key obstacles to sustainable and inclusive growth.
Gabon's authorities have initiated an ambitious reform agenda to improve governance and curb corruption, which is a central component of their 2010 Strategic Development Plan (PSGE).

B. Overview of Governance Performance

Governance in Gabon remains weak compared to other emerging market economies (EMEs) and upper middle-income countries (UMICs).
Governance indicators, including rule of law and regulatory quality, have shown slight improvements between 2009 and 2012, but have since deteriorated.
Corruption is still perceived as a serious issue, with 80% of respondents in the 2019 Transparency International survey indicating that corruption had worsened in the past year.
Bribes are common in interactions with the police, courts, utility companies, and for permits or documents.
The National Commission to Combat Illicit Enrichment (CNLCEI), established in 2004, has identified over 300 corruption cases between 2014 and 2017, but only 18 were investigated and 1 led to sanctions.
The mandatory income and asset declaration regime for public officials has not been effectively implemented due to a lack of transparency and institutional capacity.

C. Measuring the Economic Impact of Governance Reforms

A DSGE model (DIGNAR) is used to simulate the effects of governance reforms on growth, investment, consumption, and public debt.
Governance reforms are expected to significantly boost private investment and non-oil growth, while reducing public debt.
Optimistic Scenario:
- Private investment increases by 2.98% to 3.33%.
- Private consumption increases by 0.40% to 0.98%.
- Non-oil output increases by 1.12% to 1.44%.
- Public debt decreases by 1.78% to 3.5% of GDP.
Moderate Scenario:
- Private investment increases by 1.51% to 1.71%.
- Private consumption increases by 0.21% to 0.48%.
- Non-oil output increases by 0.57% to 0.75%.
- Public debt decreases by 1.01% to 1.20% of GDP.
The analysis emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive reform package that addresses all three key areas: reducing distortions in firms' decisions, improving public investment efficiency, and enhancing revenue mobilization.

D. Strengthening Governance Through Sound PFM Institutions

The Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) 2019 highlighted several weaknesses in the public investment process that hinder growth and development.
Tax and customs exemptions are numerous and often lack legal basis, leading to significant revenue losses (estimated at 3.6–7.2% of non-oil GDP in 2016).
These exemptions create risks of fraud, lack of transparency, and inefficiency in the revenue collection process.
Tax arrears are large (CFAF 180.5 billion in 2017), and the "compensation croisiée" mechanism complicates fiscal analysis.
Cash payments for tax and customs are still common, even for large amounts, and could be reduced by implementing a Treasury Single Account (TSA) and using IT systems like ASYCUDA World and E-TAX.
Weak budget credibility and lack of compliance with budget rules undermine the effectiveness of public spending and the transparency of budget execution.
Budget law should be realistic, comprehensive, and enforceable, with automated controls to ensure adherence to rules and ceilings.

E. Improving the Business Environment

Weak governance in the business environment continues to deter private investment and create an uneven playing field.
The business environment in Gabon is ranked poorly compared to CEMAC countries, with high costs for contract enforcement and property registration.
Improving the business environment is essential for attracting private sector activity and enhancing economic growth.

F. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

Governance reforms are crucial for improving economic performance, fiscal sustainability, and growth inclusiveness.
A comprehensive reform package that addresses corruption, improves PFM, and enhances the business environment is necessary.
Policy recommendations include:
- Reforming and better controlling tax and customs exemptions.
- Transitioning to bank transfers for tax and customs payments.
- Enhancing transparency and institutional capacity in PFM.
- Strengthening budget credibility through compliance with legal rules and improved budgeting practices.
- Implementing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) to improve cash management and reduce fraud.

References

IMF-led assessments (PEFA, etc.).
Transparency International survey.
Gabonese authorities and other third-party sources.

Annexes and Boxes

Annex I: Description of third-party corruption indicators.
Annex II: Summary findings of the Gabonese National Commission to Combat Illicit Enrichment.
Annex III: Key model features and calibration to Gabon.
Annex IV: Comparison of the results of the 2013 and 2016 PEFA assessments.
Box 1: Anti-corruption framework in Gabon, highlighting legal instruments and their implementation challenges.
Box 2: Special Economic Zones as a potential avenue for diversification and growth.