2017年-ECB欧洲央行_The_recalibration_of_the_ECBs_asset_purchase_programme_3页_85kb

ECB's Asset Purchase Programme (APP) Recalibration Summary

Core Content

The European Central Bank (ECB) recalibrated its expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) during its meeting on 26 October 2017. This recalibration was aimed at adjusting the pace and duration of bond purchases in response to evolving economic conditions and inflation expectations.

Main Decision

• Until December 2017: The ECB will continue purchasing assets at the current monthly pace of €60 billion.
• From January 2018: The net asset purchase pace will be reduced to €30 billion per month.
• Duration: Net purchases will continue until September 2018, or beyond if necessary, to ensure a sustained adjustment in the inflation path consistent with the ECB's inflation target of below but close to 2% over a meaningful medium-term horizon.

Flexibility and Reinvestment

• The Governing Council emphasized its willingness to increase the size or duration of the APP if economic conditions worsen or if financial conditions no longer support the progress towards the inflation target.
• The Eurosystem will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities for an extended period after the end of net asset purchases, as long as necessary, to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.

Rationale for Recalibration

The decision to recalibrate the APP was based on the following factors:

• Growing confidence in the gradual convergence of inflation towards the ECB's target, driven by:
  • A broad-based economic expansion.
  • An uptick in underlying inflation measures.
  • Continued effective transmission of monetary policy to real economy financing conditions.
• Economic indicators in the second half of 2017 showed sustained growth momentum.
• Global recovery is expected to support euro area exports.
• Private consumption is supported by rising employment and increasing household wealth.
• Investment continues to benefit from favorable financing conditions and improved corporate profitability.
• Despite these positive signs, underlying inflation has not yet shown a convincing sustained upward trend, and a substantial degree of monetary accommodation remains necessary to support headline inflation in the medium term.

Transmission Channels of the APP

The APP influences the economy through two key transmission channels:

1. Yield Curve Influence:

   • The Eurosystem affects the expectations component of long-term interest rates by shaping market expectations of future short-term rates.
   • It also impacts the term premium, which is the excess return investors demand for holding long-term bonds.

2. Duration Risk Management:

   • By purchasing long-dated bonds, the ECB absorbs duration risk from the market, which would otherwise be borne by private investors.
   • This reduces the term premium and puts downward pressure on long-term interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and promoting investment and durable consumption.
   • Private investors are then able to rebalance portfolios, increasing their capacity to hedge remaining duration risk and reallocate funds to other investments, such as productive capital.

Key Information

• The recalibration reflects the ECB's assessment that a sustained adjustment in inflation is not yet fully realized.
• The four criteria used to evaluate inflation progress are:
  1. Headline inflation is on a path to levels below, but close to, 2% over a medium-term horizon.
  2. Confidence in the durability of the convergence and stabilization of inflation around those levels.
  3. The trajectory of inflation is self-sustaining even with reduced monetary support.
  4. The metric used is euro area inflation, not individual country rates.
• The ECB remains patient and continues to support the economy through monetary accommodation, even as it reduces the pace of asset purchases.

Conclusion

The recalibration of the APP demonstrates the ECB's adaptive approach to monetary policy, balancing the need for continued stimulus with the growing confidence in the medium-term inflation outlook. The programme's design is aimed at maintaining favorable financial conditions and ensuring that inflation converges to its target in a sustainable manner.