2021-11-29-UNDP-2022年社会经济展望_避免基本需求危机（英）_40页_1mb

Afghanistan: Socio-Economic Outlook 2021-2022

Core Content

Afghanistan faced significant economic and development challenges at the end of 2020, with international partners pledging over US$13 billion in aid from November 2020 to 2024. Despite this, the economic conditions continued to deteriorate, and the political change on 15 August 2021, led by the Taliban, created a "wait-and-see" situation. The new de facto authority has not been internationally recognized, and its actions have diverged from its initial promises, including the exclusion of women from public life and the halt of girls' education, leading to a loss of trust and a sudden stop in international aid.

Main Points

1.1 Objective of the Report

• To provide an initial assessment of the economic outlook and implications for humanitarian relief in the short term.
• To identify areas for partnerships and joint programming to mobilize resources and avert a humanitarian crisis.
• To support a productive dialogue among stakeholders, especially with the Taliban, on immediate humanitarian needs and adherence to international laws and principles.

1.2 Social Conditions in 2020 and Required Aid

• Economic growth had stalled, and per capita income dropped to just over US$500 in 2020, down from nearly US$650 in 2012.
• Internal displacement due to conflict and environmental crises affected 3.5 million people.
• The poverty rate increased to over 70% by the end of 2020, compared to 47% before the pandemic.
• Humanitarian needs were estimated to affect 18 million people, nearly half of the population, mostly children.

1.3 Post-August 2021: A "Wait-and-See" Situation

• The Taliban made promises of inclusivity and respect for human rights, but these have not been fulfilled.
• Women were excluded from public life and required male accompaniment in public spaces.
• Girls were barred from returning to schools, especially above age 12, and public sector women were told not to return to work.
• These actions have been seen as broken promises, hindering international recognition and aid.

1.4 Initial Impact of Asset Freeze and Reduced Aid

• Foreign aid, which previously accounted for 40% of GDP, dropped sharply.
• The Afghan central bank's foreign reserves were frozen, and international donors paused disbursements.
• This led to cash shortages, weakened the banking sector, and a sharp depreciation of the national currency.
• Inflation rose, particularly for food, cooking oil, and fuel.
• The expected severe drought, ongoing effects of the pandemic, and incomplete political transition are likely to result in a GDP contraction of up to 30% over the next few years.

1.5 Impact on Social Conditions

• Afghanistan is facing an "epic humanitarian crisis" and is on the verge of a "development catastrophe."
• A national drought was declared in 2021, one of the worst in three decades, affecting 80% of the country.
• Food insecurity has reached a record level, with 23 million people in need of assistance.
• Wages have fallen by 8-10%, and many government and security personnel are unpaid.
• Health services, including pandemic containment and maternal care, are under threat.

1.6 UNDP's Projections and Humanitarian Relief Prospects

• Poverty is expected to become nearly universal by mid-2022, affecting more than 90% of the population.
• The poverty gap may more than double, requiring US$2 billion to lift incomes of the poor to the poverty line.
• Restrictions on female employment could reduce production by US$600 million to US$1 billion and cut household consumption by nearly US$500 million annually.
• The SDGs, particularly SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 4 (Quality Education), and SDG 5 (Gender Equality), are at risk of derailment.
• UNDP estimates that the SDGs were already off track before 2021, and recent developments are likely to worsen the situation.

1.7 Outline of the Report and Key Policy Proposals

• The report outlines key policy proposals to address poverty, vulnerability, and the risks of economic collapse.
• It recommends the introduction of social protection measures, including:
  • Cash transfers for vulnerable households (estimated at US$300 million annually).
  • Cash-for-markets to support small businesses (US$90 million annually).
  • Cash-for-work to maintain and build community infrastructure (US$100 million annually).
• The Taliban launched a food-for-work program in Kabul, offering wheat in exchange for labor, which could be expanded to other areas.
• The report emphasizes the need for a coordinated and swift humanitarian response, based on the One-UN concept, to ensure maximum impact and to protect the most vulnerable populations.

Key Sectors and Issues

2.1 Macroeconomic Situation

• Economic contraction is expected to reach 20% of GDP in the first year and potentially 30% in the following years.
• The economy is heavily reliant on imports, especially energy and food, which are at risk of disruption.

2.2 Private Sector and Banking

• The private sector and banking system are critical for economic recovery and funding humanitarian efforts.
• The banking sector is under stress, with restrictions on withdrawals and a weakened financial system.

2.3 Energy Sector

• Energy is essential for household welfare and production.
• Electricity imports are critical, and their interruption could leave over 10 million people without power.
• The report urges international humanitarian assistance to ensure electricity imports are not cut.

3.1 Humanitarian Crisis

• The number of people in need of food assistance is expected to reach 23 million by 2022.
• Over 14 million children are likely to face crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity.
• Acute malnutrition and mortality risks are rising, especially among children under five.

3.2 Gender Impact

• Restrictions on women's employment and education are having a significant economic impact.
• The loss of female employment could reduce production by 3-5% of GDP.
• Women's exclusion from public life and economic participation is undermining human capital development.
• The rate of return on educating a girl in Afghanistan is more than double that of a boy, highlighting the importance of gender-inclusive policies.

3.3 SDGs and Development Goals

• The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are at risk of being further derailed.
• The most affected SDGs include poverty, hunger, health, education, and gender equality.
• The report underscores the need for continued support to maintain progress on these goals.

3.4 Social Protection

• Social protection is seen as a critical tool to mitigate the impact of the crisis.
• The proposed programs include cash transfers, cash-for-work, and cash-for-markets.
• These programs are expected to have a significant impact on reducing poverty and improving social conditions.

Conclusion

• The report calls for a coordinated, swift, and effective humanitarian response to avoid a basic needs crisis.
• It highlights the importance of maintaining international aid and ensuring that support is directly channeled to Afghan citizens.
• The international community is expected to continue providing aid, but the effectiveness of such support depends on how it is used and the recognition of the de facto authorities.
• The report stresses the need for engagement with the Taliban on humanitarian and development issues while upholding international principles and laws.

Key Recommendations

• Implement social protection measures such as cash transfers, cash-for-work, and cash-for-markets.
• Ensure continued international aid and support for basic services.
• Promote gender equality and protect women's rights to prevent further economic and social decline.
• Support humanitarian efforts to address food insecurity, health crises, and education gaps.
• Encourage international dialogue and cooperation to ensure aid is not cut and that the humanitarian response is effective and timely.