普华永道-2018全球矿业报告（英文版）-2018.10-28页-2mb

报告摘要

2018 Mining Industry Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the performance and outlook of the world's Top 40 mining companies in 2017 and 2018, emphasizing the positive trends and challenges they face. It highlights the continued recovery in the mining cycle, driven by global economic growth and infrastructure development in emerging economies, as well as the sector's improved financial performance and focus on safety and cost efficiency.

Main Points

2017 Performance

Revenue increased by 23% to $600 billion.
EBITDA rose by 38% to $146 billion.
Gearing decreased from 41% to 31%.
Net debt to EBITDA improved by 38%.
Market cap increased by 30% to $926 billion.
Employee costs rose by 5%, outpacing inflation.
Fatalities dropped by 36%, with improvements in India and South Africa.
Injury frequency rates improved for 15 out of 22 companies.
Tax contributions increased by 81% in 2017, driven by higher profits and U.S. tax reforms.
Dividends paid rose by 125% to $36 billion.

2018 Outlook

The Top 40's performance is expected to continue, with revenue projected at $642 billion, EBITDA at $162 billion, and net profit at $76 billion.
Capital expenditure is expected to increase from $48 billion (lowest since 2006) to a higher level, but with a focus on disciplined investment.
Dividend policies remain strong, with 23 of the Top 40 having formalised policies aiming to pay 30-40% of annual net profit.

Key Trends

Portfolio optimisation is a key strategy, with companies divesting non-core assets and increasing ownership in existing operations.
Safety and efficiency are central to the industry's focus, with initiatives aimed at reducing costs and fatalities.
Corporate social responsibility is gaining traction, with increased reporting on environmental, safety, and community impact.

Risks and Temptations

Risks

Macro-economic fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainty, regulatory risk, technology and cyber threats, and social licence risks are on the rise.
Liquidity and funding concerns are less pressing due to improved balance sheets.
Natural disasters and market competition remain significant risks.

Temptations

Aggressive acquisitions and investment in new capacity may tempt companies to overextend.
Shareholder demands for higher dividends and returns may lead to short-term thinking.
Government pressure for increased tax and royalty contributions could affect future profitability.

Financial and Operational Highlights

Financial Capital

Market cap: $926 billion (up 30%).
Revenue: $600 billion (up 23%).
EBITDA: $146 billion (up 38%).
Gearing: 31% (down from 41%).
Net debt to EBITDA: Improved by 38%.

Manufactured Capital

Capital expenditure: $48 billion, the lowest since 2006.
New project approvals: Limited, indicating a cautious approach to expansion.
Production levels: Overall flat, with a focus on efficiency and cost control.

Intellectual Capital

Exploration: Increased by 15% globally, from a very low base.
Technology: Offers potential to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

Human Capital

Employee costs: Increased by 5%, outpacing inflation.
Safety improvements: Noted in many companies, though some still report fatalities.
Labour disputes: Remain a challenge, especially in emerging markets like Chile.

Stakeholder Engagement

Female board representation: Increased to 19%, with 27% of new appointments being female.
Community partnerships: Highlighted as an important aspect of responsible corporate citizenship.
Regulatory relations: Remain challenging, with increasing scrutiny on tax, royalties, and social impact.

Long-Term Outlook

The mining cycle is expected to continue for several more years, supported by global GDP growth and infrastructure development.
Companies must maintain discipline in capital allocation and balance short-term demands with long-term value creation.
Sustainability and transparency are becoming more critical, especially in relation to shareholder expectations and stakeholder engagement.

Conclusion

The Top 40 mining companies have shown strong performance in 2017, with improved financial metrics and a focus on safety and efficiency. While the outlook for 2018 is positive, the industry must remain vigilant against the risks and temptations that come with success, particularly in maintaining capital discipline and addressing stakeholder demands.

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