2012年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh_Economic_Update_October_2012_20页_954kb

Bangladesh Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Bangladesh Economic Update for October 2012 outlines the country's economic performance, challenges, and outlook for fiscal year 2013 (FY13). Despite a challenging global environment, Bangladesh is projected to grow at close to 6 percent in FY13. However, growth is expected to moderate further due to external demand weakness and domestic supply constraints. The report highlights the importance of monetary policy, fiscal management, financial sector stability, and structural reforms in shaping the economic trajectory.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Investment

• GDP Growth: Projected at 6% for FY13, though expected to moderate further.
• Investment Trends:
  • Investment as a share of GDP remained nearly stagnant at around 25%.
  • Private investment declined from 19.5% to 19.1% of GDP between FY11 and FY12.
  • Public investment increased from 5.6% to 6.3% of GDP.
  • The investment target for FY13 is 29.6% of GDP, but this is likely to be difficult to achieve due to electricity and gas shortages, inadequate infrastructure, and external economic conditions.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation: Decelerated to 7.4% in September 2012, driven by declines in both food and non-food prices.
• Monetary Tightening: Continued in FY13, following a moderately tightening stance in FY12.
• Exchange Rate: Remained stable at Tk 82 per USD since February 2012, with real effective exchange rate appreciation.
• Reserves: Bangladesh Bank has built up its reserve buffer, reaching US$11.2 billion by September 2012, which is 3.6 months of prospective imports.

Fiscal Policy

• Budget Deficit: Estimated at 4.5% of GDP in FY12, with domestic financing at 3.2% and foreign financing at 1.3%.
• FY13 Budget Deficit: Targeted at 5% of GDP, slightly higher than FY12, and is likely to be undershot due to slow implementation of the Annual Development Program (ADP).
• Fiscal Challenges:
  • Net external financing needed in FY13 is US$2.2 billion, up from US$1.4 billion in FY12.
  • Domestic financing remains heavily reliant on bank borrowing (69%).
  • Subsidies increased from 2.2% to 2.9% of GDP, but were partially offset by lower oil prices and fuel price adjustments.

Financial Sector

• Stability: The financial sector showed relative resilience during the global crisis but has faced stress in the last six months.
• Banking Issues:
  • Liquidity contraction and loan recovery rate decline have led to higher deposit and lending rates.
  • Governance issues in State-owned Commercial Banks have raised concerns about inter-bank defaults and profitability.
• Capital Market: Remains volatile, with investor confidence still recovering from the 2011 bubble burst.

Structural Reforms

• Progress:
  • Approval of the new VAT law.
  • Renewal of 2G telecom licenses.
  • Adjustments to administered prices.
• Slippages:
  • Increase in nominal rate of protection.
  • Non-primary dealer banks are required to absorb T-bills.

Export and Import Trends

• Exports:
  • Declined in the second half of FY12 but showed minimal growth in July-September 2012.
  • Garment exports saw mixed results (knitwear flat, woven garments up by 13.9%).
  • Export market diversification is ongoing, but the combined share of new markets is still too small to significantly impact overall growth.
• Imports:
  • Grew at a slower pace than expected, contributing to a balance of payments surplus in FY12.

Risks and Challenges

• Near-term Risks:
  • Euro area crisis could deepen export slump.
  • Global food price increases might reverse food inflation.
  • Global oil price shocks could pressure the balance of payments.
  • Political instability and labor unrest may depress investments.
• Mitigation Strategies:
  • Close surveillance of macroeconomic trends.
  • Strengthened monitoring and supervision of banks.
  • Building policy space to address uncertainties.

Food Outlook

• Food Inflation: Declined due to falling rice prices and adequate production.
• Stock Levels: Increased due to higher government procurement.
• Safety Nets: In place to protect the poor from potential global food crises.
• Uncertainty: Prolonged droughts and natural disasters in key food-producing regions may push up international food prices, potentially reversing recent declines in Bangladesh.

Key Information

• FDI Growth: Increased to US$1.13 billion in FY12, the second time Bangladesh has exceeded the US$1 billion mark.
• Strategic Advantages: Cheap labor and location in a growing region make Bangladesh attractive for FDI, especially in light industries.
• Infrastructure Challenges:
  • Electricity shortages persist due to underutilization and mechanical failures.
  • Roads and ports remain underdeveloped, affecting domestic and international trade.
• Public Investment: ADP implementation is slow, leading to revised targets and reduced foreign financing.
• Revenue Growth: Projected at 21.6% in FY13, with VAT and income tax as the main contributors.
• Contingent Liabilities: Increased from 4.6% to 7.1% of GDP, mainly due to BPC, BCIC, and BKB.

Conclusion

Bangladesh is navigating a complex economic landscape marked by moderate growth, inflation control, and fiscal discipline. While fiscal policy is back on track and monetary tightening has helped reduce inflation, structural bottlenecks and external shocks pose significant risks. The government must focus on improving infrastructure, enhancing governance, and managing contingent liabilities to sustain growth and stability. The financial sector remains vulnerable, and investment targets are challenging to meet. Diversification of export markets and reducing dependency on foreign financing are critical for long-term economic resilience.