2012年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh_Economic_Update_May_2012_18页_1mb

Bangladesh Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an economic update for Bangladesh in fiscal year 2012, highlighting the country's growth performance, inflationary pressures, monetary policy adjustments, banking system challenges, capital market developments, and fiscal and external imbalances. It also outlines the outlook and associated risks for the economy.

Main Points

Economic Growth

• GDP Growth: Moderated from 6.7% in FY11 to 6.3% in FY12 due to unfavorable external conditions and internal supply constraints.
• Contributors to Growth: Strong manufacturing growth (9.8%), robust remittance growth (10.4%), and stable private consumption (around 75% of GDP).
• Sectoral Growth:
  • Agriculture: Slowed from 5.1% to 2.5%, mainly due to a decline in crop growth and sluggish animal farming.
  • Manufacturing: Slight increase from 9.5% to 9.8%, driven by small-scale manufacturing (7.2% vs. 5.8%).
  • Exports: Growth slowed to 8.4% in the first half of FY12, with knitwear exports declining sharply to 3% in the first ten months, indicating impact from the Euro zone recession.

Inflation

• Inflationary Pressures: Continued to be volatile, reaching double-digit levels.
• Food Inflation: Declined from 13.8% in September 2011 to 8.1% in April 2012, due to good harvests and stock releases.
• Non-Food Inflation: Rose to 14% in March 2012, driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
• Real Wages: Increased by 3.11% in February 2012, helping to mitigate the impact of inflation on poor households.
• Safety Net Programs: Including Vulnerable Group Development, Food for Work, and Open Market Sales, have helped cushion the effects of inflation on poor families.

Monetary Policy

• Monetary Tightening: Gradual tightening has occurred, with the Bangladesh Bank (BB) raising the repo rate by 325 basis points since August 2010.
• Reserve Money Growth: Reduced from 21.7% in December 2011 to 11.9% in March 2012.
• Broad Money Growth: 17.6% through April 2012, on track to meet the program target.
• Credit to Private Sector: Grew by 19.5% in FY12, but limited room for further expansion due to government borrowing and fiscal pressures.

Banking System

• Liquidity Shortages: Banks have relied heavily on the repo window due to petroleum import payments and government borrowing.
• New Bank Licensing: 9 new banks licensed, increasing competition for deposits and challenging BB's supervisory capacity.
• State-Owned Banks: Suffering the most from liquidity constraints.

Capital Market

• Stock Market Recovery: Index rebounded after a decline, aided by private equity inflows, local institutional re-entry, and positive ratings from Moody's and S&P.
• Regulatory Reforms: Ongoing to ensure a stable trading environment, including autonomy for the Securities & Exchange Commission and potential changes in bank shareholding limits.

Fiscal and Public Spending

• Fiscal Deficit: Increased by more than 2.5 times from July to January 2012, reaching Tk 258.2 billion.
• Public Spending: Recurrent expenditures are likely to exceed the original budget target due to increased subsidies and transfers.
• ADP Implementation: Slowed compared to the previous year, with only 49.4% of the allocation spent in the first ten months of FY12.
• Tax Revenue: Robust growth at 19.2% in July-April 2012, but slower than the previous year due to base effects.

External Imbalances

• Balance of Payments: Deteriorating, with reserves falling to below three months of imports.
• Current Account Surplus: Declined by 36% to US$456 million during July-March 2012.
• Exchange Rate: Depreciated by about 10% from end-June 2011 to end-May 2012, with pressure expected to continue due to oil imports and slowing exports.

Key Risks and Outlook

• Export Growth: Likely to slow to 9% in FY12 and 12% in FY13, affected by the Euro zone crisis and reduced demand.
• Remittances: May be impacted indirectly by the Euro zone crisis, though direct effects are expected to be small.
• Policy Space: Limited due to high inflation, fiscal deficit, and low reserves, making it difficult to respond to global economic slowdowns.
• Macroeconomic Adjustment: Requires coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the economy and improve growth prospects.

Conclusion

Bangladesh's economy is facing a mix of challenges, including slowing growth, high inflation, and external imbalances. While some sectors, like manufacturing and remittances, are performing well, others, such as agriculture and exports, are struggling. The government and Bangladesh Bank need to implement further reforms and maintain tight monetary and fiscal policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.