2004年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh___Development_Forum_Economic_Update_70页_4mb

Bangladesh Development Forum Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an economic update on Bangladesh for the fiscal year 2004, focusing on recent economic developments, long-term growth and poverty trends, the development policy agenda, medium-term macroeconomic prospects, and the long-run growth agenda. It also outlines the agenda for human development, emphasizing the need for institutional reforms and improved service delivery.

Main Economic Developments

1. Economic Growth

• GDP Growth: Continued to pick up steam, increasing from 4.4% in FY02 to 5.3% in FY03, with projections of 5.5% for FY04.
• Drivers of Growth: Strong grain harvests (especially rice), increased manufacturing sector investment, and robust construction activity.
• Export Performance: Export growth remains strong, with woven garments and knitwear as main drivers. Exports to EU markets increased by 30%, while exports to the US declined by 15%.
• Import Trends: Imports grew by 14.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of FY04, indicating strong domestic investment and growth prospects.
• Trade Balance: Merchandise trade deficit increased by $283 million compared to FY03, but current account remained in surplus due to strong remittance inflows.

2. Foreign Exchange

• Exchange Rate: The taka was floated in May 2003, leading to a 5% depreciation in nominal terms. The informal forex premium has declined significantly since November 2003.
• Forex Reserves: Reached $2.7 billion by mid-April 2004, equivalent to over 3 months of import cover.
• Stability: The forex market has remained stable since the float, with the Bangladesh Bank (BB) managing liquidity through reverse repo operations and treasury bills sales.

3. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Stance: Expansionary but within prudent limits, with a target deficit-to-GDP ratio of 4.8% for FY04.
• Budget Implementation: Behind target, with only 36% of the Annual Development Program (ADP) spending realized in the first eight months.
• Revenue Shortfalls: Tax revenue growth fell short of targets, with concerns about meeting the FY04 revenue goal. The government has proposed additional revenue measures, including excise increases and operationalizing new tax units.
• Fiscal Adjustments: There is a suggestion to revise the budget targets, reducing the deficit to 4.0% of GDP and capping domestic financing and borrowing from the banking system.

4. Monetary Policy

• Monetary Tightening: Implemented in the summer of 2003 to support exchange rate float, but has since become more accommodative.
• Interest Rates: Remain high due to administered rates on NSCs and postal savings schemes, as well as lack of competition and inefficiencies in the banking sector.
• Credit Growth: Private sector credit growth was 12.4% over the 12 months ending February 2004, with a decline in public sector borrowing costs.

5. Inflation

• Inflation Trends: CPI inflation rose from 1.6% in FY01 to 5.8% by February 2004, with the target of 4.5% deemed unattainable, revised to 6%.
• Causes of Inflation: Higher import prices and energy price adjustments. Food items (65% of the inflation index) and transport and communication costs saw significant increases.
• Monetary Measures: The BB has intensified reverse repo operations and treasury bills sales to control inflation without undue pressure on interest rates.

Long-Term Growth and Poverty Trends

• Per Capita GDP Growth: Rose from -0.7% in the 1970s to 1.1% in the 1980s and 3.0% in the 1990s, with relatively low volatility.
• Poverty Reduction: Income poverty declined from 59% in 1991-92 to 50% in 2000. Non-income poverty reduction has been impressive, including improvements in life expectancy, infant mortality, immunization coverage, and gender equality in education.
• Human Development Index (HDI): Bangladesh ranks 132, indicating very low human development levels, especially in education and health.

Development Policy Agenda

• Remaining Challenges: High poverty levels, low human development, and governance issues remain.
• Government Strategy: The PRSP process provides an opportunity to review performance, identify obstacles, and plan for future improvements.
• Key Reforms: Focus on three main areas: achieving higher and sustained GDP growth, consolidating human development gains, and addressing governance-related problems.

Medium-Term Macroeconomic Prospects

• GDP Growth Target: The government aims to increase GDP growth from 5.3% in FY03 to 6.0% in FY06.
• Fiscal Strategy: Emphasizes strengthening domestic tax mobilization, scaling up spending in infrastructure and education, and using concessional donor support to finance temporary deficits.
• Monetary Policy: Prudent course with the indicative program agreed with the IMF to rebuild reserves and support private sector credit growth.
• Debt Sustainability: Public debt remains sustainable, with external debt mostly concessional and significantly lower than comparator countries. Fiscal correction is underway, but more work is needed to maintain fiscal consolidation and reform SOEs and NCBs.

Long-Run Growth Agenda

• Growth Drivers: Productivity increases are expected to be the main source of higher growth.
• Policy Measures: Include enhancing global integration, accelerating human capital and infrastructure development, improving financial intermediation, strengthening economic governance, and streamlining the regulatory environment.
• Investment Needs: Higher investment rates and more efficient investment decisions are required. This will need fiscal prudence and substantial donor support.

Agenda for Human Development

• Social Spending: Needs to be complemented with institutional improvements in service delivery.
• Priority Areas: Strengthening public-private partnerships (including NGOs and CBOs), enhancing quality of health, family planning, and education services, promoting female empowerment, addressing arsenic poisoning and environmental pollution, and improving disaster management and social insurance.
• Decentralization: Key to improving service quality and access for the poor. Bangladesh remains highly centralized, with weak local administrative capacity and accountability.

Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Export Diversification: Needed to mitigate the impact of the MFA phase-out in 2005.
• Fiscal Prudence: Essential to meet revenue targets and maintain fiscal sustainability.
• Structural Reforms: Required to boost productivity and growth, particularly in the financial and regulatory sectors.
• Human Development: Must be prioritized through institutional reforms and increased public investment in education and health.
• Decentralization and Accountability: Necessary to improve service delivery and ensure better outcomes for the poor.

Conclusion

Bangladesh has made significant economic and social progress, but substantial challenges remain. The country needs to accelerate poverty reduction through sustained growth, improved human development, and effective governance. The PRSP process offers a valuable framework for addressing these issues, supported by fiscal and monetary reforms, as well as improved institutional capacity and service delivery mechanisms.