德银-2019全球汽车行业报告67页_1mb

报告摘要

2019 Global Automotive Review Summary

Core Content Overview

This summary outlines key developments and trends in the global automotive industry in 2019, with a focus on Europe, China, and North America. It includes market performance, regulatory challenges, technological shifts, and financial metrics.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Car Demand

2019 Performance: Global car demand declined by -4% in 2019, with H1 at -7% and H2 at -1%.
Trend Context: The industry was on a +2% annual growth trend, but 2019 saw it 10% below that trend, equivalent to 10m fewer vehicles sold.
Current SAAR: The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is in the 88–90m range, down from 95m in 2017 and 2018.
2020 Outlook: A marginal decline is expected, with Europe (-3%) and North America (-2%) remaining weak. China is projected to stabilize after two years of decline.

European Market Trends

2018 Performance: Western Europe's car market fell by 1% to 14.2m units, with a sharp -8% decline in Q4.
2019 Outlook: A slight improvement to 14.35m units, but still below the previous peak of 14.8m units in 2007.
Country Performance: Spain and France outperformed, while the UK underperformed with -7%.
OEM Performance: Most OEMs saw performance between +1% and -3%, with no major outlier.

Share Price Performance

Despite profit warnings and a -9% consensus EPS downgrade for 2019, European auto sector shares increased by 18% (STOXX Auto).
P/E Ratio: The sector trades at 8.7x for 2019e and 7.6x for 2020e, a 50% discount to the market, consistent with the last 7 years' average.

EV Battery Market Outlook

EV Shipments: SNE forecasts 4.5m units in 2018 and 22.1m units by 2025 (19% CAGR).
Battery Demand: By 2025, total EV battery demand is expected to reach 918GWh, up from 91GWh in 2018.
Capacity Utilization: 97% of announced capacity may be utilized under the 2025 forecast, but an extra 37% may be needed if the forecast is accurate.

Powertrain Outlook in Europe

Diesel: Share declines from 44% (2017) to 20% (2030).
Gasoline: Share slightly increases from 52% to 40%.
Hybrid & PHEV: Hybrid share increases from 3% to 7%, PHEV from 1% to 13%.
BEV: Share rises from 1% to 25%.
CO2 Reduction Costs: Estimated at €24bn for all OEMs, with super credits potentially offsetting some costs.

CO2 Emission Targets

2021 Target: The sector benchmark is 95g/km, with most OEMs facing a significant challenge to meet it.
2030 Target: Proposed at 60g/km, with a 37.9g/km gap for BMW and 21.3g/km for Fiat.
VW's Initiative: VW has announced a major BEV initiative, while Fiat lacks a clear strategy for electrification.

US Tariff Impact

Potential Tariffs: A 25% tariff on European vehicles could add $2.5bn for VW Group, $2bn for BMW, and $1.6bn for Daimler.
Mitigation Strategies: Localizing production could help avoid tariffs but may lead to inefficiencies and higher costs.
Overall Impact: Tariffs could lead to a lose-lose situation for OEMs and consumers.

European Auto Sector Valuation

P/E Ratio: Sector trades at 6.9x for 2019e and 6.5x for 2020e, generating a 4.4% dividend yield.
Discount to Market: Averaged 45% over the last 7 years, reaching 48% in 2019e and 2020e.

Tire Industry Performance

2018 EBIT: Most tiremakers saw EBIT decline, with Goodyear recording the largest drop.
2019 Outlook: EBIT is expected to remain stable, with volume growth below long-term trend.
Key Factors: Raw material costs were a headwind, but price mix effects offset them for most companies.

Organic Growth of European Suppliers

2018 Performance: Organic growth ranged between +2% and -4%, with an average outperformance of 500bps over global car production.
2019 Outlook: Organic growth is expected to be marginally positive in H1 but weak in H2 due to lingering headwinds.
Drivers: Global platforms and product enrichment drove growth, not just market share gains.

China's Role

JV Contributions: German OEMs' joint ventures in China contributed significantly to their performance.
EV Trends: China's EV battery shipments and prices were a focus, with growth expected to continue despite the absence of stimulus.

Conclusion

The 2019 automotive industry faced a mix of challenges and opportunities. Europe remained the most difficult region due to CO2 regulations, while China and North America showed signs of stabilization and recovery. EVs and battery technology were key growth areas, with significant investment and production targets. Share prices were resilient despite earnings downgrades, and valuation remained discounted compared to the broader market. Strategic alliances, such as the VW-Ford partnership, were seen as positive steps toward cost-sharing and innovation. Overall, the industry is expected to continue facing a slow growth environment in 2020.