国际治理创新中心-零售中央银行数字货币：时机到了吗？（英）-2022.2-34页_864kb

报告摘要

Retail Central Bank Digital Currency: Has Its Time Come?

Core Content

This paper by Pierre L. Siklos explores the introduction of retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and evaluates whether its time has come. It outlines the potential economic, legal, and governance implications of retail CBDC, emphasizing the need for careful consideration before widespread adoption.

Main Viewpoints

Retail CBDC Definition: Retail CBDC is a digital currency that primarily complements physical cash, though it may also be held as deposits in financial institutions. It differs from wholesale CBDC, which deals with large-value transactions.
Current Trends: Central banks in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs) are preparing for the introduction of CBDC. Trials are already underway in various countries, though the exact timeline for full implementation remains uncertain.
Economic Impact: The introduction of retail CBDC could significantly affect the financial system. It may reduce the convenience yield of cash, as digital payments offer speed, efficiency, and interest-bearing features. However, it also introduces new risks, such as privacy loss, technical failures, and cultural resistance.
Governance Concerns: The paper raises critical governance questions, particularly regarding the relationship between central banks, governments, and the private sector. It argues that current governance models may not be adequate for managing the broader implications of CBDC, especially its potential to blur the lines between fiscal and monetary policy.
Mission Creep Risk: There is a concern that the introduction of retail CBDC could lead to an expansion of central banks' roles and responsibilities, potentially resulting in mission creep. This would require central banks to take on more oversight functions, which could be challenging given their existing mandates.
Privacy and Data Issues: The digitization of money raises significant privacy concerns. Central banks may need to manage data ownership, harvesting, and usage, which are not traditionally part of their functions. The potential for misuse by governments or private entities adds complexity.
Technological Challenges: The deployment of retail CBDC involves technical risks such as denial of service attacks and system interruptions. These challenges require robust infrastructure and ongoing innovation, which may not be fully addressed by current central banking expertise.
Inflation and CBDC: Inflation, particularly in the context of the post-COVID-19 recovery, may influence the adoption of CBDC. The ability of digital currency to offset inflationary losses could make it more attractive, but this also depends on the public's perception of its value.
Global Implications: CBDC has the potential to disrupt cross-border transactions and reshape the global financial system. The G20, which includes economies representing over 80% of global GDP, plays a central role in shaping the future of CBDC.

Key Information

Data Sources: The paper draws on data from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Financial Stability Board, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), among others. It also references the Digital Evolution Index and the World Values Survey.
CBDC Types: Two main types of retail CBDC are discussed:
- Narrow CBDC: A digital equivalent to physical cash, primarily used for transactions.
- Broad CBDC: A digital currency that can also be held as deposits, affecting broader monetary aggregates.
Convenience Yield: The convenience yield of cash, due to its widespread acceptability, is a key factor in its continued use. Retail CBDC may introduce an inconvenience yield due to its digital nature and associated risks.
Policy Recommendations: The paper suggests that central banks must ensure transparency and accountability in the introduction of CBDC. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing governance issues and aligning regulatory frameworks to prevent potential economic shocks.
Public Awareness: There is a need for greater public education on the implications of CBDC, especially in light of current societal concerns such as the pandemic and climate change.

Critical Open Questions

What are the current drivers of cash holdings globally?
Are existing governance models suitable for managing the implications of CBDC?
How can central banks balance their roles in maintaining financial stability and monetary policy with new CBDC responsibilities?
What are the privacy, security, and societal implications of digitizing money?

Conclusion

The introduction of retail CBDC is not just a technological shift but a significant policy challenge. While it offers economic and financial benefits, it also introduces new risks and complexities that require careful governance. The paper concludes that the potential for CBDC to cause economic shocks is real, and central banks must be prepared to address these issues proactively.