CSIS-俄罗斯可能出现的灰色地区和混合战争行动的时间安排（英文）-2020.7-17页_1mb

Summary of the Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations

Core Content

This document outlines the concept of gray zone operations and hybrid warfare, emphasizing the shift in modern conflict from traditional military engagements to a broader spectrum of non-military and semi-military actions. These operations are defined as activities that fall between peace and war, often involving economic, political, informational, and military tactics to achieve strategic objectives without direct combat. The document provides a chronological analysis of Russian activities across various regions, highlighting how Russia competes with the United States in a non-linear, non-symmetric, and non-contact manner.

Main Views

• Gray zone operations are a strategic tool used by Russia to influence and compete with the U.S. and other states.
• These operations include a mix of economic, informational, and military actions, such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, trade coercion, and support for separatist movements.
• The U.S. has developed its own framework for responding to such operations, known as Multi-Domain Operations (MDO), which emphasizes calibrated force posture, multidomain formations, and convergence.
• Russia's approach to warfare is closely related to the Chinese concept of unrestricted warfare, which includes non-contact, nonlinear, and non-symmetric elements.

Key Information

Definitions

• Gray zone operations: Range from nonviolent economic manipulation to low-level violence using mercenaries.
• Hybrid warfare: Combines political, economic, informational, and military means to achieve strategic goals without full-scale war.
• Unrestricted warfare (Chinese): A form of warfare that transcends traditional boundaries, using non-contact, nonlinear, and non-symmetric tactics.
• Multi-Domain Operations (MDO): A U.S. military concept that integrates capabilities across domains to counter near-peer adversaries.

Russian Campaigns

1. Active Measures Campaign (Target: United States)

   • Includes cyber-attacks, election interference, and disinformation.
   • Examples: 2016 U.S. election interference, medical aid with propaganda intent, and denial of the coronavirus impact.

2. Broader West/EU Campaign (Target: NATO and Europe)

   • Focuses on trade coercion, military demonstrations, and diplomatic pressure.
   • Includes Nord Stream 2 pipeline negotiations, interception of Russian bombers in Alaska, and support for Trump's troop withdrawal plan.

3. Southeastern Europe/Western Balkans Campaign

   • Aims to influence countries seeking EU/NATO membership.
   • Example: Nord Stream pipeline construction to bypass Eastern Europe.

4. Western Border Campaign (Target: Baltic States, Ukraine, Georgia)

   • Involves economic sanctions, military posturing, and cyberattacks.
   • Includes Estonia's Bronze Soldier relocation crisis, Latvia's language policies, and Ukraine's energy disputes.

5. Near Abroad Campaign (Target: Former Soviet Union countries)

   • Focuses on economic and diplomatic ties, including customs unions and resource access.
   • Countries involved: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Moldova.

6. Syrian Campaign

   • Russia's military involvement in the Syrian Civil War.
   • Includes airstrikes, ground troop deployment, and missile system installations.
   • Tensions with Turkey over Syrian military actions and TurkStream pipeline.

7. Middle East Campaign

   • Russia seeks to expand its influence in the region, including Gulf States, Israel, and the Levant.
   • Example: Refusal to cut oil production in 2020, response to U.S. sanctions, and competition with U.S. shale industry.

8. Sino-Relations Campaign

   • Russia aims to strengthen ties with China.
   • Includes joint statements, economic cooperation, and strategic alignment.

9. Africa Campaign

   • Russia's efforts to expand its influence through debt forgiveness, resource access, and military training.
   • Involves private military companies and military exercises.

10. Latin America Campaign

    • Russia builds relations with Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.
    • Focuses on economic and political support in the region.

11. Southeast Asia/India Campaign

    • Russia's limited but growing influence in the region.
    • Includes arms sales and diplomatic engagement.

12. Arctic Campaign

    • Russia seeks to assert dominance over natural resources and strategic military positions in the Arctic.

Conclusion

The document underscores the complexity and ambiguity of Russian gray zone operations, noting that they often blurred the lines between peace and war. It also highlights the need for a comprehensive U.S. strategy that addresses the full spectrum of Russian actions, from economic and political influence to cyber and informational warfare. The chronology serves as a starting point for deeper analysis and strategic planning, emphasizing the importance of understanding the full range of Russian activities in the context of global strategic competition.

Notes on the Document

• This is a working draft and not fully comprehensive.
• Ambiguity and uncertainty are inherent in the data, as many operations remain unreported or unclear.
• A full analysis would require country-specific expertise and classified intelligence.
• The document is part of a broader series on U.S. competition with China and Russia.