CEPA-欧洲政策研究中心-俄罗斯混合战争的演变（英文）-2021.1-62页_4mb

CEPA Report Summary: The Evolution of Russian Hybrid Warfare

Core Content

This report, published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), examines the evolution of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy, focusing on its application in Ukraine, Estonia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU)/NATO. The report highlights how Russia uses a combination of military and nonmilitary tools to achieve strategic objectives while avoiding direct confrontation with the West.

Main Viewpoints

• Hybrid Warfare as a Strategic Tool: Russia employs hybrid warfare as a means to compete with the West in a nonlinear, asymmetrical manner. It uses a range of tools including disinformation, cyberattacks, political subversion, economic pressure, and irregular military actions.
• Chaos Strategy: The chaos strategy is central to Russia's approach. It aims to destabilize opponents through the sowing of internal divisions, undermining political systems, and weakening alliances.
• Adaptation and Evolution: Over time, Russia has refined its approach, incorporating lessons from past operations and adapting its tactics. The report outlines two phases of this strategy: Chaos 1.0 (based on the Gerasimov Doctrine) and Chaos 2.0, which includes a greater emphasis on limited action and active defense.
• Strategic Objectives: The ultimate goal of Russia's hybrid warfare is to ensure the survival of the current regime by weakening the Western-led international order and maintaining influence over its neighbors.

Key Information

Chaos 1.0: The Rise of the Gerasimov Doctrine

• Origins: The Gerasimov Doctrine was introduced in 2013 and emphasized the use of nonlinear, nonmilitary means to achieve military goals.
• Objectives: It aimed to create information and psychological dominance, erode the legitimacy of Western institutions, and prepare the operational environment for potential military actions.
• Tactics: Included disinformation, cyberattacks, and the use of proxy forces and militias.
• Impact: The doctrine was a response to the Arab Spring and the fear of color revolutions. It was used in conflicts like the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Donbas.

Chaos 2.0: The Evolution of Hybrid War

• Limited Action: This strategy involves targeted, low-intensity military interventions to counter threats to Russian national interests without direct confrontation.
• Active Defense: Focuses on preemptively neutralizing threats through active measures, such as disinformation campaigns and political manipulation.
• New Tools: Russia has increasingly used modern technology, social media, and cyber capabilities to enhance its hybrid warfare tactics.
• Shift in Goals: Russia has moved from attempting to control territories like Crimea and Donbas to sustaining low-scale conflicts that hinder Ukraine's integration into Western structures.

Case Studies

Ukraine

• Hybrid Tools: Russia has used disinformation, cyberattacks, economic pressure, and irregular military forces (including the Wagner Group).
• Political Influence: Support for pro-Russian political figures like Viktor Medvedchuk, who has close ties to Putin.
• Economic Impact: Trade with Russia dropped by 75% after 2014, and the country's GDP fell significantly.
• Social and Information Warfare: Attacks on minorities and the use of social media bots and trolls to spread disinformation and create distrust.

Estonia

• Cyber Threats: Estonia has been a target of Russian cyber operations, which have tested NATO's Article V collective defense commitments.
• Resilience: Estonia's response has inspired European policy changes in information security and cyber defense.
• Russian Tactics: Includes disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and attempts to undermine institutional trust.

United Kingdom

• Information Operations: Russia has focused on infiltrating networks, destabilizing internal norms, and creating an environment favorable to its interests.
• Impact: The UK has been affected by disinformation and covert influence operations, especially in the informational realm.
• Response: The UK has developed countermeasures to detect and respond to Russian hybrid operations.

EU/NATO

• Institutional Challenges: Russian hybrid warfare has tested the cohesion of these institutions.
• Tactics: Includes efforts to increase political polarization, challenge institutional unity, and use nonmilitary means to influence decision-making.
• Adaptation: The EU and NATO have had to adapt their policies and structures to counter these threats.

Conclusion

The report concludes that Russia's hybrid warfare strategy is evolving and remains a significant threat to Western interests. The chaos strategy is effective because it exploits Western disorientation and distraction. It is a multi-vector approach that combines military and nonmilitary tools to achieve strategic goals. The report emphasizes the need for the West to develop a unified response and learn from the experiences of its allies and partners in Europe to better counter Russian hybrid warfare.

Authors

• Alina Polyakova: President and CEO of CEPA, with expertise in European studies and international relations.
• Mathieu Boulegue: Research fellow at Chatham House, focusing on Russian security and foreign policy.
• Kateryna Zarembo: Associated Fellow at the New Europe Center, with a background in international relations and strategic studies.
• Sergiy Solodkyy: First Deputy Director of the New Europe Center, specializing in foreign policy and security.
• Kalev Stoicescu: Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, with a focus on Russian foreign and domestic policy.
• Precious N Chatterje-Doody: Lecturer at The Open University, UK, researching Russian communication and information strategies.
• Oscar Jonsson: Academic director at the Center for the Governance of Change at IE University, with expertise in Russian military strategy and international relations.

Acknowledgements

The report acknowledges the support of U.S.-based journalist Iryna Solomko, the CEPA communications and editorial team, external peer reviewers, and Donald Jensen for framing the research question. It was made possible by the Smith Richardson Foundation.

Endnotes

The report includes references to various sources, including the Gerasimov Doctrine, historical events, and expert analyses, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution of Russian hybrid warfare.