CSIS-中国灰色地区可能的编年史和混合战争行动（英文）-2020.7-20页_1mb

Summary of Chinese Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations

Core Content

This document provides a chronology of Chinese gray zone and hybrid warfare operations, focusing on how China competes with the United States and Russia through a combination of political, economic, informational, and military means. It highlights the concept of "unrestricted warfare" and its similarities to the Russian "non-linear warfare" framework. The U.S. has also developed the "multi-domain operations" (MDO) concept to counter these hybrid strategies, emphasizing the need for a flexible and comprehensive approach to strategic competition.

Main Views

• Gray Zone Operations are non-linear, non-symmetric, and non-contact actions that do not involve direct military conflict but still aim to achieve strategic objectives.
• These operations include economic coercion, disinformation, espionage, and support for separatist movements, among others.
• The U.S. strategy must adapt to the lack of clear boundaries between military and non-military actions, as both China and Russia actively use a wide spectrum of tools to compete globally.
• The document emphasizes the importance of understanding these operations across all levels of competition, from grand strategic to tactical.

Key Information

Chinese "Unrestricted Warfare" Concept

• Definition: A form of warfare that transcends traditional boundaries, combining military and non-military tactics.
• Three Non-Characteristics:
  • Non-contact (fei jierong): Advanced forces operate outside the enemy's weapon range.
  • Non-linear (fei xianshi): Warfare occurs in information space and lacks a clear battlefield.
  • Non-symmetric (fei duicheng): Limited military resources are used strategically to challenge adversaries.

U.S. "Multi-Domain Operations" (MDO)

• Definition: A concept that integrates military and non-military capabilities across multiple domains (land, sea, air, space, cyber, and information) to achieve strategic objectives.
• Key Tenets:
  • Calibrated force posture: Strategic positioning and mobility across domains.
  • Multi-domain formations: Forces capable of operating across domains in contested environments.
  • Convergence: Rapid integration of capabilities to maximize effects through cross-domain synergy.

Chinese Gray Zone Campaigns

1. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Campaign

• Launch: September 2013.
• Scope: Infrastructure and economic investments in over 70 countries and organizations.
• Strategic Use: Potential for economic coercion through loan deferrals or early payments.
• Participating Countries: Includes Russia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and many others in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

2. Trade War Campaign

• Key Events:
  • April 6, 2017: Initial trade cooperation proposal by President Xi.
  • May 2018: U.S. reimposes 25% tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods.
  • January 2020: Phase one trade deal signed between the U.S. and China.
• Tensions: Included issues like fentanyl bans and Huawei's inclusion on the U.S. "entity list."

3. Espionage Campaign

• Key Events:
  • April 1, 2001: Hainan Island incident involving a U.S. spy plane.
  • 2004: Confucius Institutes established to promote Chinese culture and language.
  • 2009: Hackers traced to China breached the F-35 project.
  • 2013: OPM networks were breached, leading to the theft of personnel records.
  • 2016: Chinese officials kidnapped a U.S. official in Chengdu.
  • 2018–2019: Multiple Chinese companies added to the U.S. "entity list" for nuclear technology theft.

4. Disinformation Campaign

• Key Events:
  • January 2020: U.S. officials called for shutting down flights from China.
  • March 2020: Chinese diplomats spread conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus.
  • April 2020: Chinese state media attacked U.S. officials for their criticism of China's response to the pandemic.
  • June 2020: EU reported Chinese disinformation efforts on the pandemic.

5. Maritime Campaign

• Key Events:
  • 2010–2015: Disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and Scarborough Shoal.
  • 2015: U.S. ship Lassen entered waters near Subi Reef, prompting Chinese anger.
  • 2016: China threatened to establish new ADIZs and sold stealth submarines to Pakistan.
  • 2017–2019: Increased military presence in the South China Sea, including the commissioning of the Shandong aircraft carrier.
  • 2019: U.S. warships transited the Taiwan Strait, leading to Chinese condemnation.

Conclusion

This chronology illustrates the broad and complex nature of Chinese gray zone operations, which are designed to achieve strategic goals without direct military confrontation. It serves as a starting point for understanding and responding to China's multifaceted competition with the U.S., including economic, technological, informational, and military dimensions. The document underscores the need for a comprehensive and adaptive U.S. strategy to address these evolving challenges.