2022-01-12-联合国西亚经济社会委员会-现实与前景_2020_109页_7mb

Summary of Realities and Prospects in the Arab Region: Survey of Economic and Social Developments 2020-2021

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the socioeconomic developments in the Arab region from January 2020 to June 2021, focusing on the impact of the global economic environment and the challenges of the pandemic. It outlines the economic and social outlook for 2022 and 2023, highlighting the uneven recovery across subregions and the importance of tax reform and diversification for long-term stability.

Main Objectives

1. Analyze economic and social variables in the Arab region within a global context (Chapters 1–3).
2. Assess taxation and revenue mobilization challenges and opportunities (Chapter 4).

Key Findings

Global Context and Implications

• Global Economic Recovery: The global economy is projected to grow at 4.1% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023, driven by rapid vaccination and fiscal stimulus in developed countries.
• Uneven Distribution: Growth will be uneven, with developed economies outperforming the global South, particularly due to slower vaccine roll-outs and limited fiscal capacity.
• Impact of Pandemic: The pandemic has reshaped global supply chains, with China and emerging Asia as clear winners and Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America as losers.
• Shift in Demand: There is a clear shift in global demand towards processed goods and a decarbonization trend in developed economies, which has slowed the recovery of the hydrocarbons trade.
• Vaccination Progress: The Arab region has been relatively spared from vaccine controversy, with high vaccination rates in GCC countries. In contrast, developing countries in the region, especially conflict-affected and least developed ones, have limited access to vaccines due to financial and security constraints.

Regional Socioeconomic Trends

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries:

  • Expected to grow at 3.6% (baseline) and 3.9% (alternate) in 2022, and 3.6% and 3.9% in 2023.
  • Oil prices are projected to remain stable, and oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.
  • Fiscal deficits are expected to decline, and tax revenue is likely to increase due to higher oil and gas returns.
  • If oil prices rise to $80 per barrel, fiscal balances could turn into a surplus in 2022 and 2.4% surplus in 2023.

• Middle-Income Countries:

  • Expected to grow at 4.1% (baseline) and 2.8% (alternate) in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
  • Lebanon is experiencing its worst socioeconomic crisis, with a GDP contraction of 16.2% in 2021 and high poverty and unemployment rates.
  • The pandemic has widened the education gender gap, particularly for girls, and limited access to health resources.

• Conflict-Affected Countries:

  • Expected to grow at 4.3% (baseline) and 6.7% (alternate) in 2022, and 4.5% and 6.9% in 2023.
  • Growth is contingent on peace and economic stability, especially in Libya and Iraq.
  • The fiscal position is expected to deteriorate due to increased spending on reconstruction and pandemic containment.

• Least Developed Countries:

  • Projected to grow at 2% (baseline) and 2.6% (alternate) in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
  • Growth is driven by remittances and foreign aid, but they face limited fiscal capacity to address the pandemic.
  • The spread of the Omicron variant may slow growth to 1.7% and 2.6% for 2022 and 2023.

Social Developments and Gender Dynamics

• Poverty: Expected to decline slightly from 26.94% in 2021 to 26.23% in 2023, but with significant regional disparities.
• Gender Equality: The region needs 142 years to reach gender parity at the current pace. The pandemic has exacerbated gender gaps in education and health.
• Unemployment: The overall unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 10.7% in 2023, but youth unemployment, especially among females, remains the highest globally.
• Education: Around one in five children, adolescents, and youth in the Arab region are not enrolled in school, with girls disproportionately affected.
• Social Protection: Only 35.1% of the Arab population is covered by at least one social protection benefit, compared to 46.9% globally.

Taxation and Revenue Mobilization

• Tax Revenue Trends: Total revenue as a share of GDP has declined in the Arab region over the past 15 years, with oil and gas revenue being a major contributor.
• Tax Systems: Middle-income countries rely on taxing goods and services, which disproportionately affects the poor and middle class. Tax reforms have not significantly improved tax-to-GDP ratios.
• Tax Leakages: Weak tax administration and leakages are major challenges, with a need to address tax evasion, avoidance, and noncompliance.
• Tax Efficiency: Improving tax efficiency to OECD levels could increase tax revenue by up to 45% in some countries.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Enhance tax fairness and progressivity.
  • Simplify and transparentize administrative procedures.
  • Introduce wealth or property taxes.
  • Improve tax data and promote cross-border cooperation to combat tax evasion and avoidance.

Key Challenges

• Vaccine Roll-Out: Slow vaccination rates in developing and conflict-affected countries limit their recovery prospects.
• Economic Vulnerability: Many Arab countries remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports, making them vulnerable to global market shocks.
• Fiscal Constraints: Limited fiscal space in developing countries hinders their ability to respond to the pandemic and invest in recovery.
• Tax Inefficiencies: Tax leakages and weak administration reduce revenue collection and limit government capacity to fund social programs.

Opportunities

• Diversification: Expanding export diversity is crucial to reduce vulnerability to global commodity price fluctuations.
• Tax Reform: Implementing more efficient and fair tax systems could significantly boost public revenue.
• International Cooperation: Strengthening cross-border tax cooperation and transparency is essential for sustainable development.

Conclusion

The Arab region is at a crossroads, facing both significant challenges and opportunities. While the global outlook is positive, the uneven distribution of recovery and the persistent socioeconomic issues within the region require urgent attention. Tax reform, diversification of economies, and improved social protection systems are key to ensuring inclusive and sustainable development in the coming years.