联合国西亚经济社会委员会-现实与前景：2020-2021年阿拉伯区域经济和社会发展概览（英）-109页_3mb

Summary of Realities and Prospects in the Arab Region: Survey of Economic and Social Developments (2020-2021)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the socioeconomic developments in the Arab region from January 2020 to June 2021, focusing on economic recovery, growth prospects, and the challenges and opportunities in taxation. It is produced by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and aims to support member states in implementing policies aligned with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Main Objectives

• To assess the recent economic and social variables in the Arab region within a global context (Chapters 1 to 3).
• To examine taxation and the challenges and opportunities for increasing tax revenue in the region (Chapter 4).

Key Findings

Global Economic Context

• The global economy is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2023.
• Growth will be uneven, with developed countries expected to outperform due to faster vaccine roll-outs and fiscal stimulus.
• The emergence of the Omicron variant poses a risk to growth, potentially slowing it to 2.4% and 3.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to remain elevated at 3.2% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023 due to rising commodity prices, increased demand, and disrupted supply chains.

Economic Recovery in the Arab Region

• GCC Countries: Expected to grow by 3.6% in 2022 and 3.9% in 2023 under the alternate scenario, driven by rising oil prices and increased vaccination rates.
• Middle-Income Countries: Projected to grow by 4.1% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, but Lebanon is expected to experience a severe socioeconomic crisis.
• Conflict-Affected Countries: Growth is anticipated to be 4.3% and 6.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, under the baseline scenario, but may be affected by the Omicron variant.
• Least Developed Countries: Expected to grow by 2% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, with limited fiscal capacity to manage the pandemic.

Poverty and Unemployment

• Poverty is expected to decline slightly from 26.94% in 2021 to 26.23% in 2023, but will increase in Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic.
• The unemployment rate in the region is expected to decline to 10.7% in 2023, but youth unemployment, especially among females, remains the highest globally.
• In Tunisia, unemployment could reach 17%, while in Lebanon, it may touch 32% in 2022.

Gender Dynamics

• The region made a slight improvement in closing the gender gap in 2020, but at the current pace, it will take 142 years to reach gender parity.
• Women and girls face challenges in accessing health resources and education, with many countries still experiencing unequal access, poor infrastructure, and outdated learning methodologies.
• Only 35.1% of the Arab population is covered by at least one social protection benefit, compared to 46.9% globally.

Taxation and Revenue Mobilization

• The Arab region has seen a decline in total revenue as a share of GDP over the past decade and a half.
• Oil and gas revenue remains the primary source of public income for most Arab oil-exporting countries, with a significant decline due to the pandemic.
• Tax systems in the region are inefficient, with low tax-to-GDP ratios and significant leakages.
• Improving tax efficiency could increase revenue by up to 45% in some countries.
• Tax reforms are needed to address tax evasion, avoidance, noncompliance, and other abuses, with a focus on making systems fairer, more progressive, and more transparent.
• Enhanced cross-border tax cooperation is essential for improving tax transparency and coordinating tax incentives.

Key Challenges

• Vaccine Roll-Out: Slow vaccination rates in developing countries, particularly in the least developed and conflict-affected countries, hinder economic recovery.
• Fiscal Constraints: Many Arab countries face limited fiscal space, leading to increased public debt and reliance on foreign grants.
• Diversification: Arab countries have not diversified their export portfolios sufficiently, making them vulnerable to global commodity market shocks.
• Tax Efficiency: Weak tax administration and leakages limit the effectiveness of tax systems, especially in middle-income and least developed countries.
• Social Protection: Coverage and effectiveness of social protection systems are limited, particularly in politically unstable and economically constrained countries.

Opportunities

• Tax Reforms: Implementing more progressive and transparent tax policies can significantly increase public revenue.
• Diversification: Expanding export diversity is crucial for long-term resilience and economic stability.
• Global Cooperation: Enhanced cross-border tax cooperation can improve transparency and coordination of tax incentives.
• Development Assistance: Increased remittances and foreign aid are expected to support economic recovery in the least developed countries.

Conclusion

The Arab region continues to face significant socioeconomic challenges, including high unemployment, limited gender equality, and weak tax systems. However, with the right policies and international support, there is potential for recovery and sustainable development. The report emphasizes the importance of diversification, tax reform, and improved social protection to ensure inclusive growth.