联合国西亚经济社会委员会-2023-2024年阿拉伯地区经济和社会发展调查（英）-2025_83页_4mb

Summary of Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the Arab Region 2023-2024

The survey analyzes economic and social trends in the Arab region within the global context of 2023-2024, highlighting high uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and socioeconomic challenges. Key findings include:

• Global Economic Outlook: The global economy shows moderate growth, driven by post-COVID recovery in Asia and China. However, high interest rates are curbing global inflation, and geopolitical risks, such as wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, pose significant threats.

• Arab Region Outlook: The region's GDP growth is projected at 3.4% in 2024 and 3.9-3.7% in 2025-2026. Debt distress has not worsened, and inflation is expected to decline from 11.9% in 2024 to lower rates in subsequent years. Growth varies by country, with high-income countries benefiting from oil and gas sectors, while middle-income and low-income countries face challenges from conflicts and economic diversification efforts.

• Country-Specific Highlights: High-income countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE) are expected to grow at 2.7-5.6% due to non-hydrocarbon investments. Middle-income countries (e.g., Egypt, Jordan) show growth around 2.8-3.7%, but are affected by the war on Gaza and Lebanon. Low-income countries (e.g., Somalia, Comoros) grow at 3.1-5.1%, driven by extractive sectors. Conflict-affected countries (e.g., Iraq, Sudan) face severe contraction and high inflation.

• Social Developments: Poverty remains elevated, with rates dropping slowly in high-income and middle-income countries but persisting in conflict and low-income regions. Labor force participation is low, particularly for women (17.8% in 2024), and youth unemployment is high. Gender equality lags, with the Arab region ranking poorly in the Global Gender Gap Index (0.625 in 2024), reflecting disparities in education, health, economic participation, and political representation.

The report underscores the need for structural reforms, economic diversification, and targeted policies to address poverty, unemployment, and gender inequality, while navigating ongoing conflicts and climate challenges.