德银-全球-半导体行业-亚洲科技之旅：充满不确定性-2019.6.16-21页_859kb

报告摘要

Global Semiconductors Industry Update – June 16, 2019

Core Content Overview

This document provides an industry update on the global semiconductors and semicap sectors, based on insights from Deutsche Bank's Asia Tech Tour. The report highlights the ongoing impact of the US-China trade war, particularly on Huawei, and evaluates demand trends across key segments such as PCs, servers, smartphones, displays, and automotive. It also outlines the firm's valuation approach and investment recommendations.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. US-China Trade War and Huawei Impact

Rising Uncertainty: The trade war and Huawei's blacklisting have significantly increased uncertainty in the semiconductor sector.
Inventory Reduction: Huawei has cut smartphone component demand by 30–40%, leading to a focus on inventory reduction. In base stations, Huawei continues to build inventory.
Supply Chain Adjustments: OEMs and component suppliers are adopting a cautious approach to inventory, which may delay the expected H2 rebound in semiconductor demand.
Manufacturing Shifts: The potential shift of manufacturing out of China is expected to result in higher costs and supply chain dislocations.
Huawei's Strategy: Huawei may focus on the China market and source components from Korean vendors, but will face challenges without access to US suppliers like Arm and testing equipment vendors.

2. Demand Trends Across Sectors

Weak Sectors: Demand in GPUs, DRAM, data center, automotive, and wafers has been weak.
Strong Sectors: OLED displays for Chinese smartphones and 5G infrastructure remain strong.
Memory Market: DRAM pricing is under pressure due to excess inventory and weak server demand, while NAND price declines are expected to decelerate.
Semicap Market: Downgrade risks are increasing due to delayed expansions in memory and foundry, with TSMC potentially reducing capex due to Hisilicon cuts.
EUV Technology: Foundries are on track for EUV shipments in 2019 and 2020, but some vendors like Intel and DRAM players are facing mixed data points.

3. Investment Stance

Neutral Stance: Deutsche Bank maintains a neutral stance on the semiconductor sector, with a focus on selectivity due to valuation disconnect from fundamentals.
Valuation Concerns: While the NTM P/E for the semiconductor universe is slightly below the 5-year average, semis-only P/Es are in line with historical averages, and semicap/memory components bring the average down.
EV/Sales Valuation: Semiconductor valuations are +12% above average on an EV/Sales basis, with semis up +18%, semicap up +4%, and memory down -2%.

4. Investment Recommendations

Top Picks (US): Broadcom, Inphi, Intel, Marvell, NXP, and Micron.
Top Picks (Europe): ST Micro, Infineon, ASM International, X-Fab, ams AG, and Nanoco.
Top Picks (Asia): Catcher, Samsung SDI, Sony, and Hoya.
Telecom Equipment: Nokia is preferred over Ericsson due to its strong position in 5G.

Key Takeaways from Asia Tech Tour

Huawei's Impact: Significant reduction in orders for Taiwanese component suppliers, with a potential shift to Korean vendors.
iPhone Production: Expected to see a sharp QoQ ramp in 3Q19, but remains conservative compared to previous years.
Samsung Galaxy S10: Shipments below expectations, with 5G models contributing only slightly to the total.
OLED Displays: Stronger-than-expected demand from Chinese panel makers and new flagship models in H2-19 could boost utilization.
Automotive: Mixed near-term performance, but long-term structural growth in xEV (BEV/PHEV) and ADAS remains intact.
Battery Technology: Korean battery makers, like LG Chemical, are making progress in reducing costs and improving EV range.
Industrial Sector: Positive momentum in robotics and automation, with improving inventories and demand.

Conclusion

Despite some areas of strength, the semiconductor sector faces significant headwinds from the ongoing US-China trade war and Huawei's impact. The report emphasizes the importance of selectivity in investment decisions, as valuations may not reflect the current uncertain fundamentals. The outlook for 5G infrastructure, OLED displays, and xEV remains positive, but near-term demand is expected to be soft in most segments.

展开完整摘要