2006年-BIS国际清算银行_Monetary_and_prudential_policies_at_a_crossroads_New_challenges_in_the_new_century_34页_222kb

报告摘要

Summary of BIS Working Paper No 216: "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century"

Core Content

This BIS Working Paper by Claudio Borio explores the evolving landscape of monetary and prudential policies in the context of new economic challenges that have emerged in the 21st century. The paper focuses on the "Great Liquidity Expansion puzzle"—a phenomenon where inflation-adjusted interest rates have remained unusually low for an extended period, and monetary and credit aggregates have expanded significantly without triggering inflation. It argues that this situation is not merely a result of traditional macroeconomic factors but is influenced by three key structural changes: financial liberalisation, the establishment of credible anti-inflation monetary policies, and globalisation.

Main Views and Key Information

1. The Hypothesis

Economic Elasticity: The financial, monetary, and real economy regimes have altered the dynamics of the economy, increasing its "elasticity"—a term used to describe the vulnerability of the economy to the build-up of financial imbalances.
Shift in Risk Perception: Financial imbalances, such as credit and asset price booms, can act as drivers of economic fluctuations, especially when the financial system becomes more procyclical.
Paradox of Credibility: Credible anti-inflation policies have reduced the likelihood of inflation as the first sign of economic overexpansion, making financial imbalances more likely to emerge.
Globalisation and Disinflation: Globalisation has increased the global growth potential and helped to keep inflation low, while also encouraging asset price booms due to liquidity expansion.
New Challenges: The current environment is more prone to financial imbalances that can lead to economic weakness, unwelcome disinflation, and financial strains when they unwind.

2. The Role of the Three Regimes

a. Financial Regime

Financial Liberalisation: Since the 1980s, the global financial system has become more open, competitive, and less regulated.
Impact on Elasticity: Financial liberalisation has made the economy more susceptible to financial imbalances, which can act as a "spark" for economic instability.
Procyclical Forces: Financial systems are inherently procyclical, but the liberalisation has increased the potential for these forces to become pathological (excessive and destabilising).

b. Monetary Regime

Low Inflation Environment: The establishment of credible monetary policies has led to a low and stable inflation environment.
Credibility and Stability: This credibility has made inflation expectations more stable, which in turn has made price stickiness more common and delayed inflationary pressures.
Monetary Accommodation: The low inflation environment has removed a key constraint on financial imbalances, possibly leading to excessive monetary policy accommodation.

c. Real Economy Regime

Globalisation: The globalisation of the real economy has led to significant supply-side changes, increasing the growth potential and efficiency of resource allocation.
Supply Chain Effects: The integration of global supply chains and the tradability of services have contributed to the growth of asset valuations and output.
Inflation Dynamics: Globalisation has made inflation more "globe-centric" and less "country-centric," complicating the use of traditional domestic indicators.

3. Two Stylised Paradigms

Orthodox Paradigm: Emphasises price stability as sufficient for economic stability. Financial factors are peripheral, and business cycles are seen as exogenous shocks with rapid convergence to equilibrium.
Unorthodox Paradigm: Highlights the critical role of financial imbalances in driving economic fluctuations. It acknowledges the endogenous, self-perpetuating nature of business cycles and the importance of non-linearities and changing risk tolerance.

4. Empirical Evidence

Credit and Asset Price Booms: Since the 1980s, credit and asset price booms have become more pronounced, often followed by financial crises or strains.
Predictive Power of Financial Imbalances: Indicators of financial imbalances can help predict banking distress, economic weakness, and disinflation over a 3–5 year horizon.
Low Inflation and Financial Imbalances: The coexistence of low inflation and financial imbalances is a new phenomenon, with the former acting as a buffer against the latter.
Globalisation and Inflation: Globalisation has supported disinflation and asset price booms, potentially leading to over-accommodation of financial imbalances.
Policy Accommodation: Central banks may be accommodating financial imbalances due to the benign nature of current inflation trends.

5. Policy Implications

Longer-Term Focus: Monetary and prudential policies should adopt a longer-term perspective to better manage financial imbalances.
Symmetry in Policy Responses: There should be greater symmetry in policy responses during both economic upswings and downturns, with more attention given to managing booms.
Cooperation Between Authorities: Closer cooperation between monetary and prudential authorities is necessary to address the complex interactions between financial and monetary stability.
Educational and Analytical Efforts: Policymakers need to be better informed about the implications of financial imbalances and the changing economic landscape.

Conclusion

The paper suggests that while the current environment has brought about a new level of economic stability, it also presents unique risks associated with the build-up and unwinding of financial imbalances. The shift from the orthodox to the unorthodox paradigm reflects a growing recognition of the importance of financial stability alongside price stability. The analysis underscores the need for a more comprehensive and integrated approach to policy-making, considering both the micro and macroeconomic dimensions of financial and monetary stability.

References

Borio, C. and Lowe, M. (2002a), "Asset price dynamics in the financial cycle", BIS Working Paper No 103.
Borio, C. and White, L. (2004), "Understanding the role of credit in financial instability", BIS Working Paper No 156.
BIS (2005a), "Financial stability: the role of the financial system", BIS Working Paper No 197.
BIS (2006), "The role of financial stability in the global economy", BIS Working Paper No 204.
Borio, C. and Filardo, A. (2006), "Globalisation, financial stability and the role of monetary policy", BIS Working Paper No 208.
Freeman, R. (2005), "The impact of China's economic growth on global markets".
IMF (2003), "Global Financial Stability Report".
Detken, H. and Smets, F. (2004), "Financial imbalances and output fluctuations".
Cecchetti, S. (2006), "Financial imbalances and the real economy".
Kindleberger, C. P. (1995), "The World in Depression".
Minsky, H. P. (1982), "Can "it" happen again?"