IRENA-绿氢供应：政策制定指南（英文）-2021.5-64页_3mb

Summary of "Green Hydrogen Supply: A Guide to Policy Making"

Core Content

This report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2021, provides a comprehensive guide for policy makers on how to support the development of the green hydrogen sector. It outlines the current status, challenges, and policy options to accelerate the commercialisation and adoption of green hydrogen, which is produced through water electrolysis powered by renewable energy.

Main Viewpoints

• Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonisation: As global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensify, green hydrogen is identified as a key solution for sectors that are hard to decarbonise, such as heavy industry, shipping, and aviation.
• Current production is minimal: Globally, green hydrogen production is still in its infancy, with most hydrogen currently derived from fossil fuels (grey hydrogen), which accounts for 95% of total production.
• Need for rapid scaling: To significantly contribute to the energy transition, green hydrogen production must scale up to around 400 million tonnes (Mt) by 2050, requiring a massive expansion of electrolyzer capacity to 5 terawatts (TW).
• Challenges include high costs, lack of infrastructure, and unclear future demand: The report identifies several barriers, including the high cost of production and transport, lack of technical and commercial standards, and the need for supportive policy frameworks.

Key Information

1.1 Current Status

• Electrolyzer capacity: Installed electrolyzer capacity is currently around 200 MW, far below the projected future needs. However, there is rapid growth in announced projects, with estimates of green hydrogen production capacity expected to reach 33–90 GW by 2030.
• Project locations: Most electrolyzer projects are concentrated in Europe and Australia, but other regions such as the Arabian Peninsula and China are also showing significant interest and investment.
• Manufacturing capacity: Global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity is expected to grow from 135 MW/year in 2018 to 3.1 GW/year by the end of 2021. To meet 2050 targets, it must reach 130–160 GW/year.
• Transportation methods: Hydrogen can be transported via truck, ship, pipeline, or converted into other energy carriers such as ammonia, methanol, or synthetic fuels to improve energy density and facilitate long-distance transport.
• Storage options: Hydrogen can be stored in above-ground tanks or underground geological formations such as salt caverns. Current storage capacity is limited, with only a few countries utilizing this method.

1.2 Hydrogen Supply Barriers

• High production costs: The cost of green hydrogen is currently around USD 4–6/kg, compared to USD 1–2/kg for grey hydrogen. This cost gap is a major obstacle to widespread adoption.
• Sustainability concerns: While green hydrogen is a clean energy source, its production still depends on the availability and cost of renewable electricity.
• Unclear future and demand: The long-term demand for green hydrogen is uncertain, making it difficult for investors and policy makers to plan for its growth.
• Unfit power system structures: The current power grid and market structures may not be optimized for the integration of green hydrogen, particularly in terms of electricity supply and demand matching.
• Lack of standards: There is a need for technical and commercial standards to ensure quality, safety, and interoperability across the hydrogen value chain.

Policy Options

The report outlines several key policy areas to support the development of green hydrogen:

• Electrolyser deployment: Policies to incentivize the installation and use of electrolyzers, including subsidies, tax incentives, and public-private partnerships.
• Sustainable electricity and cost-competitiveness: Measures to ensure the availability of low-cost renewable electricity and to support its integration into the grid.
• Demand incentives: Policies to stimulate the use of green hydrogen in industries and transport sectors, such as carbon pricing, subsidies, and demonstration projects.
• Hydrogen infrastructure: Support for the development of transport and storage infrastructure, including pipelines, tanks, and conversion facilities.
• Research and development (R&D) support: Investment in R&D to improve electrolyzer efficiency, reduce costs, and develop new technologies.

The Way Forward

• Policy stages: The report divides policy development into three stages, depending on the level of deployment in a country. These stages help tailor policy measures to the specific needs of the sector.
• Case studies and national examples: The report includes case studies and examples from various countries to illustrate effective policy approaches.
• IRENA's role: IRENA continues to provide analytical insights, roadmaps, and policy guidance to support the global transition to green hydrogen.

Key Takeaways

• Green hydrogen is a promising solution for decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors.
• The sector is in its early stages and requires significant investment and policy support to scale.
• Policy makers have a central role in driving the transition and must address cost, infrastructure, and demand challenges.
• A range of policy tools is available, including financial incentives, regulatory frameworks, and R&D support.