2017年-世界发展银行全球_Zambia_Jobs_in_Value_Chains___Opportunities_in_Agribusiness_50页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of "JOBS IN VALUE CHAINS: ZAMBIA"

Core Content

This report, titled JOBS IN VALUE CHAINS: ZAMBIA, focuses on analyzing the potential for job creation in two key agribusiness value chains (VCs) in Zambia: poultry and aquaculture. The study is part of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Let's Work (LWP) initiative, which aims to harness private sector potential to address the global jobs crisis through inclusive and sustainable employment opportunities.

Main Objectives

To identify two high-potential agribusiness VCs with significant employment creation potential.
To analyze how these VCs can be developed to unlock more and better jobs.
To outline the constraints and policy interventions needed to support growth and job creation in these sectors.

Key Sectors Analyzed

Poultry Value Chain
Aquaculture Value Chain

Key Findings

Poultry Value Chain

The poultry sector is divided into broilers and layers.
Broilers account for 80% of poultry products in Zambia, with 48% of livestock value addition.
The sector contributes 4.8% to agricultural GDP.
Traditional production is dominated by small-scale farmers (SSFs) and is labor-intensive but unproductive.
Modern production is led by large commercial farms (LCFs), which use economies of scale and advanced technologies to improve productivity and profitability.
Currently, the poultry VC provides around 31,000 jobs, with 25,500 in the traditional model and 5,500 in the modern model.
The broiler subsector is the main source of employment, particularly in small-scale farms.
Job growth scenarios suggest that the sector could create an additional 16,000 jobs under a constant market share scenario or 8,500 additional jobs if all demand is captured by LCFs.
The modern model is expected to generate better quality, formal sector jobs, especially in feed production and processing.

Aquaculture Value Chain

Aquaculture in Zambia is primarily focused on tilapia production, with most products intended for the domestic market.
There is a large demand gap, currently filled by imports, with over 77,000 MT of unmet demand annually.
The sector provides around 13,000 jobs, mostly on-farm and low-skilled.
SSFs dominate the sector, contributing the majority of jobs, especially in fish rearing.
Job growth scenarios suggest that the sector could create 22,000 jobs by 2022 if per capita consumption increases by 25%, or 13,000 additional jobs if domestic production increases to replace 30% of current imports.
The majority of these jobs will remain on-farm and low-skilled, providing opportunities for vulnerable groups such as women and youth.

Key Constraints

In the Poultry Sector:
- Persistent disconnect between low productivity SSFs and high productivity LCFs.
- Feed prices are a major constraint, especially for SSFs.
- Exchange rate volatility affects the cost of imported feed premixes and additives.
- Limited electricity access hampers productivity on small farms.
In the Aquaculture Sector:
- High feed prices and insufficient fingerling supply limit productivity and quality.
- Weak linkages with large buyers (processors) prevent SSFs from accessing better markets.
- Low productivity of SSFs compared to LCFs.

Policy Recommendations

Support integration of smallholder farms into supply chains of modern agribusinesses through outgrower and aggregator schemes.
Improve electricity access and invest in alternative power sources to enhance productivity on small farms.
Reduce exchange rate volatility to stabilize input costs, especially for imported feed.
Strengthen input supply chains, particularly for feed and fingerlings, to improve quality and volume.
Expand extension services to help SSFs adopt better farming and feeding practices.
Enhance access to capital for SSFs, especially through training programs and formal hatchery linkages.
Promote working capital for collectors and traders, who are often women and informal actors.

Methodology

The analysis was conducted using structured surveys, semi-structured interviews, and secondary research.
Surveys were administered across all nodes of the VC to ensure representativeness.
The study collected 220 data points for the poultry VC and 119 for the aquaculture VC.
The Jobs Diagnostic and Jobs Action Plan provide the macroeconomic and policy context for the analysis.

Conclusion

Both the poultry and aquaculture VCs offer significant employment opportunities, particularly for small-scale farmers and vulnerable groups.
To unlock this potential, job-friendly policies must be implemented to enhance productivity, improve market linkages, and support the integration of SSFs into modern supply chains.
The report serves as an initial pilot to illustrate how private sector-led job creation can be supported in agribusiness, with implications for other sectors in the region.

Key Viewpoints

Agriculture remains the backbone of the Zambian economy, employing over 50% of the workforce and 80% of the poor.
Smallholder farming is not inherently unproductive; however, linkages to modern supply chains are crucial for job growth and productivity.
Private sector engagement is essential for creating inclusive and sustainable jobs.
Policy reforms and institutional support are needed to address market and institutional failures that hinder VC development.

Critical Information

The poultry sector is expected to grow significantly, driven by domestic and regional demand.
The aquaculture sector has high potential to create jobs, especially with increased domestic production.
Both sectors require investment in infrastructure, capacity building, and market linkages.
Zambia's GMO-free status creates a trade barrier with neighboring countries, increasing the cost of feed.
Informal exports are a major source of income for Zambian poultry farmers, but formal exports face challenges due to regulatory and logistical barriers.

Annexes

Annex A: Details the methodology used for the analysis.
Annex B: Provides a breakdown of the survey sample across different VC nodes in the two sectors.

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