20180904-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_5页_479kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Key Index Performance

The following table outlines the performance of key indices for the period up to September 4, 2018:

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	-0.6	0.1	-7.4	37.1	11.1	11.3	10.1
HSCEI	-0.6	1.1	-7.6	16.3	11.0	7.8	7.0
MXCN	-0.8	-1.4	-9.7	46.5	16.2	12.2	10.5
SHSZ300	-0.4	0.2	-17.6	33.0	15.3	11.3	9.8
SHCOMP	-0.2	-0.7	-17.7	36.9	13.6	10.9	9.6
SZCOMP	-0.2	-2.5	-23.7	69.7	21.6	16.4	13.5
INDU	-0.1	2.0	5.0	43.8	9.1	16.6	15.3
SPX	0.0	2.2	8.5	48.3	10.3	18.0	16.3
CCMP	0.3	3.8	17.5	84.0	16.3	24.2	20.8
UKX	1.0	-2.0	-2.4	173.4	7.6	13.4	12.4
NYK	-0.7	0.8	-0.3	67.0	12.7	16.0	14.2

Hong Kong ADRs

The following table presents the performance of major Hong Kong-listed companies in both local and ADR markets:

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	332.8	-2.12	43.1	0.37
1398 ICBC	5.8	-0.17	14.7	0.72
939 CCB	6.9	-0.29	17.7	0.45
857 PETROCHINA	5.7	-2.05	74.1	-0.90
941 CHINA MOBILE	74.7	1.15	48.0	0.88
5 HSBC	68.4	-0.73	44.0	-0.74
2318 PING AN	75.9	0.33	31.0	4.28
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.5	-0.28	5.6	0.27
386 SINOPEC	7.7	-2.53	28.5	-1.06
1299 AIA	67.7	-0.07	10.3	-0.43

A-Share Market Strategy

Overall Strategy: Growth stocks are expected to rebound, with a focus on infrastructure value chain names.
Electronics: Positive outlook for the iPhone value chain in 2H18 due to the new iPhone release.
Pharmaceuticals: Fundamentals remain strong; buying opportunities are emerging as the market bottoms out.
Home Appliances: Focus on leading white goods companies with strong international competitiveness.
Transport: The "Highway to railway" initiative is expected to exceed expectations.

TMT Sector Highlights

Computers: Focus on sub-sector leaders following the interim results season.
Electronics: Positive outlook for the iPhone value chain in 2H18.

Consumer Sector Highlights

Retail: Growth retail awaits a re-rating; short-term focus on inflation-themed opportunities.
Pharmaceutical: Fundamentals remain intact.
Auto: Wait for the right timing.
F&B: Recommend condiment and dairy leaders.
Home Appliances: Focus on leading white goods names with strong market positions.
Textiles and Apparel: Positive outlook on the sector, with optimism for 3Q18 earnings.
Agriculture: Focus on inflation expectations; positive on a livestock price rebound.
Tourism: Summer travel data indicates strong growth; optimistic about sub-sector leaders.

Finance and Real Estate Highlights

Insurance: Solid 1H18 earnings; Ping An (2318 HK) has a leading edge.
Securities: Earnings at leading securities names remain resilient despite competition.
Property: Sector tailwinds have emerged; undervalued leading property names are recommended.

Utilities and Environmental Protection Highlights

Environmental Protection: PPP regulations to be issued this year; attention should be paid to the financing environment.
Coal: Prices have risen steadily; channel inventory continues to fall.
Non-ferrous Metals: Prices are still in a long-term boom cycle.

Cyclical Sector Highlights

Steel: Policy easing boosts construction demand; environmental tightening reduces supply.
New Energy: Pay close attention to the new NEV cycle; wind power installation is expected to be promoted by power cut issues.
Machinery: Technological advances counteract uncertainty.
Construction: Development in Western China is emphasized; local bond issuance is accelerating.
Basic Chemicals: Fundamentals improving; oil prices are rising; environmental protection is the new norm.
Transportation: The "Highway to railway" initiative is expected to exceed expectations.

Risks

Logistics: Rising fuel and labor costs; price competition; e-commerce growth may not meet expectations.
Insurance: New agent growth may fall short of expectations; output per agent growth may be lower than expected; short-term interest fluctuations may exceed expectations; systemic investment risks.

Investment Highlights

Insurance: Interim results were in line with expectations. The sector's 2018 P/EV is at a low of 0.91x. Recommended insurers include Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK), PICC Property & Casualty (2328 HK), New China Life Insurance (1336 HK), and China Pacific Insurance Group (2601 HK).

Rating Definitions

Company Ratings:
- Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
- Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
- Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
- Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%
Sector Ratings:
- Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
- Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
- Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Analyst Certification

The research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to specific recommendations or views in the report.

Disclosure of Interests

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliated companies do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationships with the mentioned companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates do not serve as officers of the mentioned companies and have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the report.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

展开完整摘要