20180814-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_5页_536kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content

This report provides an equity research analysis of the Chinese and global markets, focusing on key indices, ADRs, and specific sectors such as property, auto, and agriculture. It also outlines the direction of China's monetary policy and investment strategies for different industries.

Key Index Performance

The following table summarizes the performance of key indices:

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	-1.5	-2.1	-6.6	37.2	11.1	11.3	10.2
HSCEI	-1.6	0.2	-8.1	16.2	10.6	7.7	7.0
MXCN	-1.8	-5.0	-8.2	47.8	16.0	12.3	10.6
SHSZ300	-0.4	-2.9	-15.9	34.2	15.4	11.4	9.9
SHCOMP	-0.3	-1.6	-15.8	37.7	13.7	11.1	9.8
SZCOMP	0.3	-5.2	-19.9	72.7	22.2	16.9	13.9
INDU	-0.5	0.7	1.9	43.6	9.0	16.2	14.8
SPX	-0.4	0.7	5.5	48.2	10.4	17.5	15.8
CCMP	-0.2	-0.1	13.3	85.0	16.4	23.2	20.0
UKX	-0.3	-0.3	-0.6	174.3	7.6	13.6	12.6
NKY	1.0	-2.3	-3.0	64.0	13.5	15.8	13.9

Hong Kong ADRs

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	361.0	-2.43	45.8	-2.76
1398 ICBC	5.7	-1.04	14.5	-0.24
939 CCB	6.9	-1.28	17.6	-0.73
857 PETROCHINA	5.8	-2.02	73.3	-2.18
941 CHINA MOBILE	70.5	-1.95	44.8	-1.30
5 HSBC	72.1	-0.69	46.0	-0.86
2318 PING AN	71.1	-1.18	31.0	4.28
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.6	-1.66	6.0	-2.37
386 SINOPEC	7.3	-1.49	29.1	-1.09
1299 AIA	68.2	-1.59	9.6	4.34

Monetary Policy Direction

The PBoC has increased its concerns about the external environment, including trade, finance, and emerging markets.
Domestic growth drivers are also under pressure due to negative demand-side factors.
The PBoC aims to stabilize the macro leverage ratio and improve the adaptability of the financial structure over three years.
Credit policy has shifted towards supporting infrastructure investment and financing, indicating a move away from supply-side reform.
The PBoC considers inflation as 'overall stable', which supports its monetary and fiscal policy goals.

Investment Strategy

Property Sector: Positive outlook, with a focus on cyclical stocks in the infrastructure and property industry chains (property, steel, cement).
Consumer Stocks: Recommend watching leading consumer stocks with reasonable or low valuations compared to overseas peers (retail, food processing).
Growth Stocks: Suggest seeking alpha in growth stocks such as computers and aerospace.
Investment Themes: Recommend 5G networks and SOE reform.
Auto Sector: Bullish on heavy-duty trucks (HDT), despite low valuations, due to strong business conditions and continued performance above consensus.
Agriculture Sector: Expect moderate price increases for high-quality wheat in 2H18 due to reduced supply and structural gaps in domestic production.

Risks

Property Sector: China-US trade frictions, interim company reports below expectations, sharp depreciation in the Rmb.
Auto Sector: Macroeconomic growth slower than expected.
Agriculture Sector: Scope expansion of trade frictions, systemic climate disasters, significant reduction in agricultural production.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Definition
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Sector Rating	Definition
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Analyst Certification & Disclosure

The research analyst certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
No part of their remuneration is directly or indirectly connected with the specific recommendations in the report.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliated companies do not hold shares of the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationships with the mentioned companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates do not serve as officers of the mentioned companies and have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change and is not guaranteed.
Recipients should exercise judgment and consult professional advice before making investment decisions.
The proprietary trading division may have different investment decisions from the research report.

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