2025年贸易和发展展望报告_41页_4mb

Trade and Development Foresights 2025 Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the global economic context and trade dynamics for 2025, emphasizing the impact of uncertainty and financial turbulence on growth and development prospects.

Key Takeaways

• Global Outlook:
  Global growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, marking a shift towards a recessionary path. Subdued demand, trade policy shocks, and financial turbulence are intensifying pressures, especially for developing countries.

• Trade and Investment Trends:
  The late-2024 and early-2025 trade uptick was driven by front-loaded orders. However, this momentum is expected to fade or reverse in the rest of 2025 due to new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Trade policy uncertainty is affecting businesses and long-term planning decisions.

• Financing for Development:
  Fiscal priorities in major economies are shifting, with reduced official development assistance, lower social spending, and higher defense budgets. These changes risk undermining progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. Investor caution and tight financial conditions further threaten long-term development financing.

• Developing Country Vulnerabilities:
  Many low-income countries face a convergence of risks: worsening external conditions, heavy debt burdens, and weakening domestic growth. Strengthening existing trade ties, particularly within the global South, can serve as a buffer against rising uncertainty.

• Policy Priorities for Resilience:
  UNCTAD cautions against economic fragmentation and geoeconomic confrontation. Strengthening regional and international policy coordination and building on existing trade and economic links will be key to resilience in a fragile global economy.

Global Economic Context

1. The Spectre of Low Growth

• Policy Uncertainty:
  Policy uncertainty in spring 2025 is at its highest in this century, negatively affecting economic activity. Companies are experiencing losses and delaying investment and hiring decisions.

• Global Growth:
  The global economy is set to slow to 2.3% in 2025, below the 2.5% threshold indicating a global recession. This is a significant slowdown compared to pre-pandemic growth rates (Figure 1).

• 2024 Performance:
  The 2024 growth estimate was slightly revised upwards due to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy in the final quarter of 2024, but this was partially offset by weaker growth in Europe and Latin America (Table 1).

• Trade Policy Impact:
  The implementation of new tariffs and trade measures is expected to cause disruptions in border-crossing production lines and international trade flows, further reducing economic activity.

2. Uncertainty and Financial Turbulence

• Financial Turbulence:
  In April 2025, concerns over trade policy shifts have led to significant financial turbulence, with sharp corrections and losses in financial markets.

• Fear Index:
  The "fear" index (VIX) is at its third-highest level since 2008 and 2020, indicating heightened investor anxiety over global economic performance (Figure 3).

• Impact on Developing Countries:
  Developing countries, especially those in Asia, are particularly vulnerable to global financial volatility. The recent financial boom has been concentrated in advanced economies, making it difficult for developing countries to raise capital.

• Safe-Haven Assets:
  The price of gold has risen to new highs, reflecting increased demand as a safe-haven asset amid higher inflation expectations and uncertainty (Figure 5).

• Long-Term Interest Rates:
  Despite monetary loosening, long-term interest rates have risen, putting upward pressure on global interest rates and affecting developing countries with high external debt burdens (Figure 6 and 7).

International Markets

1. Dynamism of Merchandise Trade Fades Away

• Trade Trends:
  South-South trade has been increasing, and intra-Asian trade has expanded rapidly in the last three decades (Figure 9 and 10).

• Container Freight Rates:
  Decreasing container freight rates point to a slowdown in merchandise trade (Figure 15).

• Trade Policy Uncertainty:
  Trade policy uncertainty is at historical highs, affecting businesses and long-term planning (Figure 14).

2. Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Compound Risks

• Portfolio Flows:
  Portfolio flows exited emerging markets before rebounding partly in February 2025 (Figure 20).

• Sovereign Bond Yields:
  Yields on developing countries' sovereign bonds remain high (Figure 19).

• Financial Stability Risks:
  Short-term speculation and systemic uncertainty are increasing financial stability risks in developing economies.

Regional Developments

• Asia:
  Asia, particularly East and South Asia, contributed over 40% of global economic growth in 2024. However, financial turbulence and uncertainty are affecting its economies.

• Africa:
  Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa and South Sudan) is expected to grow at 4.3% in 2025, with some countries showing resilience despite external pressures.

• Americas:
  Latin America and the Caribbean saw a slight increase in growth, but trade tensions and uncertainty are threatening long-term stability.

• Europe:
  The European Union and Euro area are expected to grow at 1.0% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.

• Oceania:
  Australia is projected to grow at 2.1% in 2025, with Oceania as a whole growing at 2.0%.

• Developed vs. Developing Countries:
  Developed countries are expected to grow at 1.0% in 2025, while developing countries are projected to grow at 4.1%, although facing significant challenges.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: The world economy is entering a recessionary phase.

• Figure 2: Concerns over economic policy shifts are at their highest in this century.

• Figure 3: The "fear" index is at its third-highest level since 2008 and 2020.

• Figure 4: Financial turbulence reflects growing anxiety over the global economy.

• Figure 5: Rising geoeconomic uncertainty has propelled gold to new highs.

• Figure 6: Long-term interest rates have been rising despite monetary loosening.

• Figure 7: Uncertainty in investors' expectations is putting upward pressure on interest rates.

• Figure 8: Centres of gravity in merchandise trade partnerships.

• Figure 9: Global trade trends: South-South trade has been increasing.

• Figure 10: Intra-Asian trade has expanded rapidly in the last three decades.

• Figure 11: Inflation expectations are on the rise again.

• Figure 12: Fiscal tightening is ongoing in most G20 countries.

• Figure 13: Military spending in high-income countries is set to return to pre-1990 highs.

• Figure 14: Trade policy uncertainty is at historical highs.

• Figure 15: Decreasing container freight rates point to a slowdown in merchandise trade.

• Figure 16: Real-time estimates of world merchandise trade have been gradually revised downward.

• Figure 17: The expansion of commercial services has remained firm so far.

• Figure 18: Development financing was already strained before the 2025 cuts.

• Figure 19: Yields on developing countries' sovereign bonds remain high.

• Figure 20: Portfolio flows exited emerging markets before rebounding in February 2025.

• Figure 21: The dollar has been swinging markedly in recent months.

• Figure 22: Higher uncertainty has not spared commodities markets.

• Table 1: World output growth, 1991–2025.

  • World: 2.3% (2025 projection)
  • Developing countries: 4.1% (2025 projection)
  • Developed countries: 1.0% (2025 projection)
  • China: 4.4% (2025 projection)
  • India: 6.5% (2025 projection)
  • Indonesia: 4.8% (2025 projection)
  • Türkiye: 2.9% (2025 projection)
  • United States: 1.0% (2025 projection)
  • United Kingdom: 1.0% (2025 projection)
  • Euro area: 0.8% (2025 projection)
  • South Africa: 1.4% (2025 projection)
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: 2.3% (2025 projection)
  • East Asia: 3.4% (2025 projection)
  • South America: 2.8% (2025 projection)
  • Brazil: 2.2% (2025 projection)
  • Argentina: 5.0% (2025 projection)

Conclusion

The report highlights the challenges facing the global economy in 2025 due to uncertainty and financial turbulence. It underscores the need for policy coordination and strengthening trade relationships to build resilience, particularly for developing countries. The ongoing geoeconomic confrontation and tightening financial conditions are expected to further complicate the development prospects for many nations.