世界银行-_全球经济展望_2025年1月（英）-2025.1_249页_4mb

报告摘要

Global Economic Prospects Summary - January 2025

Core Content

The Global Economic Prospects report for January 2025 provides an in-depth analysis of the global economic outlook and challenges for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and low-income countries (LICs) over the next 25 years. It outlines the trajectory of global growth, regional dynamics, and the policy challenges that need to be addressed to foster sustainable development.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Growth Outlook

Global growth is expected to stabilize at 2.7% in 2025–2026, driven by moderating inflation and monetary easing.
However, this growth rate is insufficient for sustained development, with heightened policy uncertainty, adverse trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related natural disasters posing significant risks.
EMDEs account for 60% of global growth, but their catch-up toward advanced economies has weakened since the early 2000s.

Regional Outlooks

East Asia and Pacific (EAP): Growth is expected to moderate due to weak domestic demand in China, with the outlook for 2026 showing potential for improvement.
Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Growth is likely to slow following strong performance in 2024, particularly in large economies.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Growth is projected to pick up, supported by robust domestic demand.
Middle East and North Africa (MNA): Growth is expected to improve, but challenges remain.
South Asia (SAR): Growth is anticipated to strengthen, with the region benefiting from domestic demand and regional integration.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth is also expected to rise, driven by domestic demand and regional trade opportunities.

Key Challenges

Weakening growth prospects in EMDEs, especially for low-income countries.
High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and rising costs of climate change are significant economic constraints.
Fragility and conflict are major risks for LICs, which have seen a slowdown in graduation to middle-income status.
Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions have weakened global economic integration, with FDI inflows into EMDEs at half the 2000s level.

Policy Priorities

For EMDEs

Boost investment and productivity to enhance long-term growth.
Navigate a difficult external environment through improved trade and investment policies.
Enhance macroeconomic stability by managing inflation, debt, and fiscal risks.
Address climate change and its economic impacts.
Strengthen regional integration to leverage trade and investment opportunities.

For LICs

Leverage domestic reforms and resource endowments to support growth.
Harness demographic dividends through improved human capital and labor force inclusion.
Improve governance and address fiscal risks to ensure sustainable development.
Seek international support to mobilize resources and build resilient institutions.
Promote the green transition and regional trade integration to capitalize on growth opportunities.

Structural and Cyclical Dynamics

EMDEs have become more synchronized with advanced economies due to stronger cross-border linkages.
Business cycle spillovers from the EM3 (China, India, Brazil) and AE3 (United States, euro area, Japan) are significant.
EMDEs' integration into the global economy has increased, with nearly half of their exports now going to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000.
The growth of EMDEs has been driven by global trade and financial integration, especially in the first decade of the 21st century.

Trends and Outcomes

Global GDP is now nearly half of what it was in 2000, with EMDEs contributing significantly.
Per capita growth in developing economies has been slower than in advanced economies since 2014.
LICs that graduated to middle-income status in the early 2000s are now behind their counterparts in 2000, with anemic growth and increased vulnerability to domestic and external shocks.
Growth accelerations in past LICs were often preceded by reforms that increased market orientation and promoted investment.

Conclusion

The first quarter of the 21st century was transformative for EMDEs, but the second quarter presents greater challenges.
Policy action at both global and national levels is critical to address external constraints, fiscal vulnerabilities, and structural issues.
LICs must focus on sustainable growth, climate resilience, and institutional development to improve their prospects.
Global cooperation is essential to support development assistance, trade integration, and climate action.

Data and Methodology

The report uses dynamic factor models (DFMs) and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models for analysis.
It includes country case studies on growth accelerations and resource discovery event studies.
Fiscal and debt conditions are analyzed alongside global trade and investment trends.

References and Contributions

The report is authored by a team of World Bank economists and includes contributions from external experts.
Research assistance and modeling support were provided by various specialists.
The Open Knowledge Repository and media teams contributed to the online production and communications of the report.

Rights and Permissions

The report is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO).
Translation and adaptation of the report require proper attribution and disclaimers.
The World Bank does not assume liability for errors or omissions in the data or analysis.

Summary of Key Figures and Tables

Global GDP has grown significantly, but growth rates have declined over the years.
EMDEs have contributed more than double the share of global growth compared to the 1990s.
LICs face slow progress in graduation to middle-income status, with only six of 26 likely to achieve this by 2050.
FDI inflows into EMDEs have fallen sharply, and trade restrictions have increased.
Per capita growth in EMDEs is slower than in advanced economies, widenning the income gap.

Final Notes

The report emphasizes the importance of domestic reforms and international collaboration in achieving growth and development goals.
Policy makers should be guided by country-specific conditions and contextual challenges.
Global policy efforts are needed to combat climate change, support trade, and address debt vulnerabilities.