2025-06-11-Jefferies-中国烈酒专家电话会议-干杯时刻_9页_218kb

Summary of Global Beverages Equity Research Report

• Event: Expert call on 15 July 2025 at 2:00 PM BST, featuring Frederic Noyere, Managing Director at Jebsen Beverages, focusing on China spirits trends and long-term drivers for western style spirits.

• Key Discussion Topics:

  • Consumer trends: Economic concerns, trade shift (up vs. down), consumer robustness in channels.
  • Channel and regional differences: Strengths in certain markets, weaknesses; impact of policy on gifting and nightlife.
  • Inventory levels: Excess inventory at wholesalers, retailers, and consumers.
  • Specific spirits outlook: Cognac risks (downtrading, generational preferences), Scotch recruitment (single-malt vs. blended), Baijiu innovation, and other imports like wine.
  • Competitive environment: Analysis of companies best positioned in China; different business models for Diageo, Pernod Ricard, and Rémy Cointreau.
  • Risks: Macro effects, policy clampdowns on public consumption, trade regulations.

• Stock Recommendations and Valuation:

  • Diageo: Recommended "Buy" with DCF-derived price targets, risks include currency and regulation.
  • Pernod Ricard: "Buy" rating with risks based on macro and FX factors.
  • Rémy Cointreau: "Buy" with China-specific risks noted.
  • Other stocks: LVMH Moët Hennessy at "Hold," Davide Campari at "Hold"; overall evaluations based on DCF models and growth potential.

• Other Insights: The report highlights potential for portfolio diversification in spirits, with careful attention to China's macro risks, including policy impacts and consumer trade-down risks.