深度-UNESCO-新冠疫情对学校和学习成绩的影响报告（英文）-2021.6-12页_4mb

Summary of "Pandemic-related disruptions to schooling and impacts on learning proficiency indicators: A focus on the early grades"

Core Content

This report, published by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) in March 2021, analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning proficiency, particularly in the early grades, as measured by SDG 4.1.1. It highlights the long-term consequences of school disruptions and the need for effective mitigation strategies to restore learning trajectories.

Main Objectives

• To estimate the learning losses caused by the pandemic.
• To project the future learning proficiency of children based on these losses.
• To emphasize the importance of recovery strategies, such as accelerated learning, in mitigating the effects of the pandemic.
• To provide a framework for understanding the broader implications of school disruptions on education systems and learning outcomes.

Key Findings

• Learning Proficiency Decline: The pandemic is expected to push approximately 100 million children below the proficiency threshold in early grades.
• Global Impact: The number of non-proficient children in Grades 1 to 8 is projected to increase from 483 million to 581 million by 2020.
• Contact Time Loss: By November 2020, children had lost an average of 54% of a year's contact time with teachers.
• Forgetting Ratio: The model assumes a forgetting ratio of 2.0, meaning that for every month of contact time lost, two months of learning are lost.
• Recovery Trajectories:
  • With no acceleration, Grade 3 proficiency would return to pre-pandemic levels only in 2030.
  • With a 10% acceleration, the return could be as early as 2027.
  • For Grades 6 and 8, the return to original trajectories would occur around 2025 and 2028, respectively.
• Regional Disparities:
  • Central and Southern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are the most affected regions.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa shows smaller declines due to already low proficiency levels.
• Pre-school Disruptions: The pandemic also affected pre-school education, which is not fully captured in the SDG 4.1.1 indicators.
• Inequality: Learning losses are likely to widen existing inequalities, as children from disadvantaged backgrounds are more affected.
• Economic Impact: Education budgets are expected to decline due to the pandemic, which could exacerbate learning challenges.

Methodology

• The model is based on UIS data and uses a forgetting ratio of 2.0 to estimate learning losses.
• It incorporates country-level data on school closures and attendance.
• The report compares projections with those from the World Bank and highlights the need for improved data and monitoring systems.

Implications

• Monitoring and Data: The report underscores the importance of robust monitoring systems to track learning outcomes and inform recovery strategies.
• Policy Focus: It recommends that education planners should not only focus on catching up but also on maintaining and improving long-term development factors such as teacher training and school accountability.
• Acceleration of Learning: Accelerated learning is seen as a viable strategy to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, especially in developing countries.
• Non-proficiency: The report notes that non-proficiency is not a binary state; children should be as close as possible to the proficiency level they should ideally reach.

Challenges

• Economic Constraints: Education budgets are likely to decrease, which could hinder recovery efforts.
• Poverty and Dropout: Increased poverty may lead to higher dropout rates, especially among disadvantaged children, though this may not significantly impact SDG 4.1.1 statistics.
• Data Limitations: Country-level data on pre-school disruptions is limited, affecting the accuracy of projections.

Conclusion

• The pandemic has caused significant learning losses, particularly in early grades.
• Recovery strategies, including accelerated learning, are essential to mitigate these losses.
• The report serves as a guide for global and national education planners to understand and respond to the long-term impacts of the pandemic on learning proficiency.

Key Information

• UNESCO Mission: Promote peace and security through education, science, culture, and communication.
• UIS Role: Provide global education, science, and communication statistics.
• SDG 4.1.1: Measures the percentage of children in early grades who are proficient in reading and mathematics.
• Model Input: Contact time lost, forgetting ratio, and pre-school participation data.
• Projections: Based on the assumption that learning losses will have lasting effects unless mitigated by accelerated learning.

Recommendations

• Improve Monitoring: Enhance data collection and monitoring systems to better track learning outcomes.
• Support Teachers: Invest in teacher training and support to improve educational quality.
• Accelerate Learning: Implement accelerated learning strategies to help students catch up.
• Focus on Equity: Address the widening inequality caused by learning losses, especially for disadvantaged children.