2011年-世界发展银行全球_Export_Growth_and_Diversification___The_Case_of_Peru_30页_1mb

Summary of "Export Growth and Diversification: The Case of Peru"

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the rapid growth of Peru's exports since the early 1990s, focusing on two key questions:

1. What has been the main driver of export revenue growth—price increases or volume expansion?
2. Has there been a diversification of Peru's export products during this period?

The study concludes that while international price levels have played a significant role, especially for traditional exports, volume growth has also been a major contributor. The findings suggest that the growth in export revenues is not solely due to price increases, but also reflects a rise in production and trade volumes. However, the overall trend shows a greater concentration in traditional exports, which are mainly mineral-based, and a partial diversification in non-traditional exports due to the emergence of new products.

Main Views

• Export Growth:

  • Peru's exports have grown rapidly since the early 2000s, contributing significantly to economic growth.
  • Between 1998-2000 and 2007-09, export revenues increased almost fivefold in nominal terms.
  • This growth has been observed across both traditional and non-traditional export categories, though the volume effect is more prominent in non-traditional exports.

• Drivers of Growth:

  • Prices: The rise in international mineral prices has had a strong impact, particularly in traditional exports.
  • Volumes: The growth in export volumes has also been a key factor, especially for non-traditional exports.
  • The paper emphasizes that volume growth is more sustainable and likely reflects the impact of market-friendly reforms, such as improved business climate and microeconomic reforms.

• Diversification Trends:

  • There is no clear trend toward greater diversification in Peru's overall export basket since 1993.
  • The concentration of exports has increased, especially in the post-2000 period, due to the strong performance of traditional exports.
  • However, non-traditional exports have shown some diversification, with the emergence of new products, suggesting a partial shift in export composition.

Key Information

• Export Growth:

  • Peru's export growth rate from 2001 to 2008 was 8.3%, one of the highest in Latin America.
  • The growth in export volumes has been significant, with non-traditional exports growing faster than traditional ones in recent years.

• Export Categories:

  • Traditional exports: Include commodities like copper, fishmeal, and oil. These have historically dominated Peru's export basket.
  • Non-traditional exports: Include products like timber, fruits, and vegetables, which have been developed more recently. These are often based on traditional raw materials or new natural resources.

• Concentration and Diversification:

  • The proportion of total export value from the top 5 products increased from 47% in 1993 to 59% in 2009, indicating a trend toward concentration.
  • The Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) index also shows a decline in diversification, with a 10% increase in the share of leading products between 1999 and 2009.
  • Despite the overall trend toward concentration, non-traditional exports have shown some diversification, which is seen as a positive development.

• Implications for Policy:

  • The study suggests that while export growth is important, diversification is crucial for long-term economic stability and growth.
  • The state should play an active role in promoting the discovery of new export products and expanding into new sectors.
  • The concentration in traditional exports raises concerns about vulnerability to external shocks, especially in the context of global price fluctuations.

Conclusion

The paper finds that Peru's export boom is driven by both price and volume increases, but the trend toward greater concentration in traditional exports is a cause for concern. While non-traditional exports have diversified, the overall export basket has not. The authors recommend policy interventions to support the development of new export products and to reduce reliance on a narrow set of commodities.