2011年-世界发展银行全球_Russian_Federation_-_Export_Diversification_through_Competition_and_Innovation___A_Policy_Agenda_54页_2mb

Summary of "Export Diversification through Competition and Innovation: A Policy Agenda" for the Russian Federation

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, analyzes the challenges and opportunities for export diversification in the Russian Federation. It emphasizes the need for policy interventions that foster competition, innovation, and productivity to enhance the export performance of Russian firms, particularly in non-oil and gas sectors.

Main Points

1. Trade Performance and Export Structure

• Russia's export base has become increasingly concentrated in oil and gas, which accounted for 65% of total exports in 2009.
• The non-oil and gas sector showed 10% combined export growth over the past decade, but its potential remains underutilized.
• Export diversification is limited, with most growth stemming from existing products sold to old trading partners (88.4%) and declining exports to existing markets.
• Revealed comparative advantage is concentrated in the "periphery" of the product-space map, such as raw materials and forestry, rather than in metallurgy, vehicles, and machinery.
• Russia under-trades with major economies like China, India, and the U.S., even though its trade potential is high.

2. Firm-Level Factors Affecting Export Propensity

• Productivity, innovation, and domestic competition are the main microeconomic determinants of export propensity.
• Total factor productivity (TFP) is less important than domestic competition and firm-level R&D in explaining export intensity.
• Fixed export costs in Russia are higher than in comparator countries, while variable costs are similar.
• Regulatory burden, corruption, and lack of labor skills also hinder export activity.
• Bureaucratic delays and cash constraints (e.g., firms relying on credit after delivery) are associated with lower export propensity.

3. Investment Climate and Productivity

• Investment climate factors such as technological capacity, entrepreneurship, and skills significantly affect firm productivity.
• Managerial experience and training provision are linked to higher productivity.
• Firms with higher productivity are more likely to export and invest in R&D.
• Market concentration and fragmentation are prevalent, with 50% of firms focusing on domestic markets.
• Price cost margins (PCM) for exportable goods are higher in Russia than in international peers, reducing export incentives.

4. Innovation and Commercialization

• Business R&D spending in Russia has declined from 0.88% of GDP in 2003 to 0.65% in 2008, while OECD countries increased their R&D investment.
• Public research commercialization is limited due to poor governance, weak institutional regimes, and misallocation of talent.
• Middle-career researchers are declining, which affects research productivity and commercialization.
• Defence sector innovations remain inaccessible to the private sector.
• Intellectual property (IP) laws are improving, but loopholes and uncertainty in ownership rights hinder private investment and commercialization.
• FASIE programs and venture capital are not aligned, creating a gap in early-stage financing and threatening startup survival.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Competition policy should level the playing field, reduce rents, and favor efficient firms.
• State ownership should be reduced, and state aid should be more uniform, transparent, and performance-based.
• Business environment should be simplified to lower entry barriers and facilitate trade.
• Innovation system reforms are needed to enhance R&D and commercialization.
• Policy focus should be on results-based management, career development, and cooperation with foreign researchers.
• Intellectual property rights should be transferred to research organizations to stimulate commercialization.
• Early-stage financing should be supported through matching grants and tax breaks for SMEs.
• Regional coordinating centers should be developed to support SMEs and promote export-oriented activities.
• Trade policy should reduce anti-export bias, align with international best practices, and adopt a low and uniform tariff structure to facilitate innovation and export diversification.

Key Information

• Export participation ratio in Russia is 6.9% (2009), significantly lower than in India (12.5%), Brazil (18.1%), and China (24.5%).
• Market concentration is high in Russia, with HHI indices showing significant regional and sectoral differences.
• State aid often benefits less productive firms, distorting competition.
• Entrepreneurship is below expectations, due to poor governance and weak institutions.
• Innovation and commercialization are key to export diversification, but face institutional and legal barriers.
• Export diversification is a complex and gradual process, requiring consistent policy attention and awareness of interlinkages.

Conclusion

To achieve export diversification, Russia needs to improve its investment climate, promote competition, and enhance innovation and commercialization. These efforts should be supported by policy reforms that align with international best practices and address structural limitations in the economy.