2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Selected_Issues_39页_982kb

Morocco: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document presents three key analyses on Morocco: the implications of gender inequality for growth, the drivers of credit growth, and the impact of unit labor costs (ULC) on external competitiveness. The findings are based on data up to December 28, 2016, and are intended to inform policy discussions with the Moroccan government.

Main Issues and Findings

1. Implications of Gender Inequality for Growth

• Gender Gaps in Morocco: Morocco ranks 117th in the UNDP Gender Inequality Index, below other MENAP countries like Tunisia, Algeria, and Jordan. Female labor force participation is low, at 25%, and has been declining, particularly for women over 25 years of age.
• Impact on Growth: Gender inequality negatively affects growth, especially in early stages of development. Closing gender gaps could boost Morocco’s GDP per capita growth by up to 1 percentage point compared to benchmark countries.
• Income Losses: Gender inequality causes significant income losses, with current costs associated with labor force participation and entrepreneurship being as high as 46% of income per capita.
• Demographic Transition: Reducing gender gaps could help offset the negative effects of the demographic transition, which is expected to increase the dependency ratio by 2040. Closing gender gaps in 50 years could lead to a 27% increase in overall income by 2040.

2. Credit Growth: Supply or Demand Driven?

• Background: The paper examines whether credit growth in Morocco is driven by supply-side or demand-side factors.
• Stylized Facts: Credit growth and GDP cycles are closely related. Financial conditions and bank performance are key indicators. Non-performing loans and the cost of credit are significant constraints.
• Structural Model: A structural model is used to analyze the role of supply and demand in credit development. The model suggests that credit growth is influenced by both sides, with the demand side being more responsive to economic conditions.
• Policy Recommendations: The paper recommends policies to ensure a consistent level of credit growth, including improving access to finance and addressing structural bottlenecks.

3. Unit Labor Costs and External Competitiveness

• ULC Trends: Morocco's unit labor costs in the manufacturing sector are relatively high compared to comparator countries. This affects the country's competitiveness in international markets.
• Labor Productivity: Labor productivity has increased over the period 1990-2015, but the growth of ULCs has been more pronounced, reducing the country's export competitiveness.
• External Position: The real effective exchange rate (REER) is influenced by ULCs and CPI-based indicators. A higher ULC leads to a less competitive REER, which can affect the country's trade balance and growth.
• Policy Considerations: Policies to improve labor productivity, reduce ULCs, and enhance external competitiveness are recommended, with a focus on structural reforms and improving the business environment.

Key Policies and Initiatives

• Legal Framework: Morocco has enacted laws to promote gender equality, including the 2004 Labor Code, 2011 Constitution, and revised family code.
• Gender Budgeting: Morocco has implemented a gender budgeting initiative, which is one of the most developed in the Middle East and Central Asia. It includes the Gender Report and legal mandates for gender equality in public budgets.
• Maternity and Paternity Leave: Morocco offers 14 weeks of maternity leave at 100% of wages, meeting ILO standards. Paternity leave is currently very low (3 days), and increasing it could promote gender equality at work and within households.
• Education and Employment: The national employment strategy recommends improving access to education for girls, increasing literacy programs for rural women, and vocational training for all women. It also suggests creating more local jobs and supporting female entrepreneurship.
• Infrastructure Development: Improving public transportation and road accessibility can reduce women's travel time and increase their participation in the labor market and education.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that addressing gender inequality, improving credit growth mechanisms, and enhancing external competitiveness through ULC management are essential for Morocco's long-term economic growth. These issues are interrelated, and a holistic policy approach is needed to achieve sustainable development.