2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Selected_Issues_44页_2mb

Morocco Tax Reforms Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of a tax reform analysis for Morocco, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in November 2017. It focuses on the distributional effects of various tax reforms and the structural aspects of the tax system, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive and well-explained reform strategy to enhance equity, growth, and tax system efficiency.

Main Views and Key Information

A. Introduction

• Since the 2013 National Tax Conference, Morocco has initiated several priority tax reforms aimed at making the tax system more equitable and supportive of competitiveness.
• Tax reforms should be part of a broader strategy that considers their combined impact on growth, revenue, and fairness, along with the effectiveness of social spending.
• Without a comprehensive strategy, isolated reforms may lead to inconsistencies, distortions, or be perceived as unfair, undermining the goal of improving the tax system.

B. Key Features of Morocco's Tax System

• Morocco's tax system has satisfactory performance but has room for improvement in terms of equity and distortion reduction.
• Tax revenues declined slightly from 24% of GDP in 2012 to 21.5% in 2016 but remain above the average for middle-income economies.
• The tax base is narrow and skewed, with a large portion coming from income and goods and services taxes, while many sectors and activities are exempt.
• VAT does not apply to certain goods and services such as food and medicine, and income tax is avoided by many self-employed and liberal professions.
• Tax rates vary significantly, with corporate tax rates being higher than regional averages.

C. Scenario Simulations

• A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was developed to simulate the effects of various tax reform scenarios.
• The simulations highlight the following key points:
  • Increasing VAT rates on food slightly reduces GDP, while increasing VAT on manufacturing goods boosts GDP and government revenues.
  • Reducing exemptions and corporate tax rates increases government revenue and output, with the long-term output increasing by 0.7%.
  • A comprehensive tax reform that aligns reduced VAT rates with the standard rate, reduces exemptions, raises property tax, lowers corporate tax, and strengthens social safety nets could boost long-term growth by 1% and increase government revenues by 1.8%.
  • Property tax increases could lead to beneficial substitution effects, encouraging higher capital accumulation and manufacturing production.
  • Social transfers should be better targeted to improve welfare and mitigate the adverse effects of tax reforms on the poor.

D. Conclusion

• Morocco should adopt a comprehensive tax reform strategy that includes:
  • Aligning reduced VAT rates with the standard rate.
  • Reducing tax exemptions.
  • Raising property tax.
  • Lowering corporate tax rates.
• These measures aim to broaden the tax base, remove distortions, and better share the tax burden.
• The reform would help reduce inequalities, enhance growth, and improve the fairness and efficiency of the tax system.
• It would also increase government revenues and create fiscal space for investment and social spending.

Key Recommendations

• Implement a comprehensive tax reform that combines several key components to achieve growth, equity, and efficiency.
• Strengthen social safety nets to ensure that the poor are protected from the adverse distributional effects of tax reforms.
• Improve tax administration to reduce evasion and ensure fairer tax collection.
• Broaden the tax base by taxing self-employed and liberal professions, and introducing a broader-based property tax.

Supporting Information

• Box 1 summarizes the literature on tax reforms, highlighting the mixed evidence on their impact on growth and the importance of progressive taxation and social safety nets.
• Figures 1 to 5 illustrate the short and long-term impacts of various tax reform scenarios on GDP, tax revenues, and household welfare.
• Annex I describes the DSGE model used for the simulations, which captures the structure of Morocco's tax system and economic framework.