20141202-工银国际-VIEWPOINTS_EXPRESS_15页_447kb_447kb

Market Report Summary - 2 December 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the real estate market in China and the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector as of 2 December 2014. It also includes performance data for major equity indices, commodity prices, interest rates, and currency values.

China Property Monitor

Key Points:

• Primary Property Sales:
  • Sales momentum was maintained in November, with a 8% MoM increase and 5% YoY growth.
  • Sales in Tier1 cities remained strong, while Tier2 and Low tier cities showed weaker performance.
  • The total number of units sold in 44 monitored cities was 226.6k units, up from 209.9k units in October.
• Inventory Levels:
  • Inventory levels by units remained high in most cities, but weeks of inventory decreased in all tiers due to increased sales.
  • Tier1 cities had 49 weeks of inventory by the end of November, down from 56 weeks in October.
  • Low tier cities had 70 weeks of inventory, down from 81 weeks.
• Price Trends:
  • Property prices in 100 major cities fell 0.38% MoM in November, down from 0.4% in October.
  • The number of cities with price declines increased to 75, while cities with price appreciation dropped to 23.
  • The price decline on a YoY basis accelerated from -0.5% to -1.6%.
• Policy Impact:
  • Policy adjustments in 20 cities in November helped maintain sales momentum.
  • The lending rate cut on 22nd November improved home buyer affordability, but its full impact on prices is expected in December.
• Developer Performance:
  • Developers with premium brands, quality projects, and flexible pricing strategies such as Vanke and COLI are expected to outperform in the market.

TMT Sector Highlights

Key Developments:

• WeChat launched a feature to show nearby stores in its "Mobile Shop Program".
• Wacai, a personal finance service, secured $50 million in Series B financing, to be used for technology development, marketing, and data mining.
• A youth-oriented property portal in China's second-tier cities raised $22 million in Series B funding.
• Xiaomi shipped over 1 million Mi Band fitness trackers in just 3 months.
• Alibaba allows users to buy overseas traffic cards using yuan via Alipay.

Stock Market Performance

Equity Indices:

• HK Equities:
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): 23,367 (down 2.6% MoM)
  • H-share Index: 10,818 (down 2.9% MoM)
  • Turnover: HK$105.1 billion (up 16.5% MoM)
• China Equities:
  • CSI 300 Index: 2,820 (up 0.4% MoM)
  • Shanghai Composite Index: 2,680.2 (up 0.1% MoM)
  • Shenzhen Composite Index: 1,413 (down 0.5% MoM)
• Asian Equities:
  • Nikkei 225: 17,590 (up 0.7% MoM)
  • Korea KOSPI: 1,965 (down 0.8% MoM)
  • Taiwan TWSE: 9,118 (down 0.8% MoM)
  • India Sensex 30: 28,560 (down 0.5% MoM)
• US/European Equities:
  • DJIA: 17,777 (down 0.3% MoM)
  • S&P 500: 2,053 (down 0.7% MoM)
  • NASDAQ: 4,727 (down 1.3% MoM)
  • UK FTSE 100: 6,656 (down 1.0% MoM)
  • Germany DAX: 9,964 (down 0.2% MoM)
  • France CAC40: 4,377 (down 0.3% MoM)

Commodity and Currency Data

Commodity Prices:

• WTI Oil: $69.00 (up 4.3% MoM)
• Gold: $1,215.60 (up 4.2% MoM)
• Copper: $6,351.00 (no change)
• Aluminium: $2,004.00 (no change)
• CRB Futures: 258.80 (up 1.7% MoM)
• Baltic Dry Index: 1,153.00 (no change)

Interest Rates:

• HIBOR 3m: 0.37%
• USD LIBOR 3m: 0.23%

Currencies:

• CNY: 6,1506 (up 0.00%)
• Rmb NDF 12-mth: 1312,506 (up 0.00%)
• CNH: 6,1581 (up 0.00%)
• HKD: 7,7555 (up 0.00%)
• USD Trade Weighted Index: 83,4545 (no change)
• Euro: 1.2470 (up 0.00%)
• GBP: 1.5730 (up 0.00%)
• Yen: 118,4000 (up 0.00%)
• AUD: 0.8491 (up 0.00%)
• NZD: 0.7867 (up 0.00%)
• CHF: 0.9647 (up 0.00%)
• CAD: 1.1329 (up 0.00%)

Key Takeaways

• The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization in December, with a continued rebound in Tier1 cities and stable transactions overall.
• Policy adjustments and a lending rate cut are expected to gradually support the market, but inventory levels and supply-demand dynamics will continue to influence prices.
• Developers with strong brand recognition, quality projects, and flexible pricing strategies are likely to perform better.
• In the TMT sector, several notable developments occurred, including new features and funding rounds, highlighting the sector's growth and innovation.
• Equity markets in both Asia and the US/Europe showed mixed performance, with some indices declining and others showing slight gains.