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报告摘要

Document Summary: Market Analysis and Investment Outlook (26 May 2015)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive market analysis and investment outlook for the week of 26 May 2015, focusing on the Chinese economy, the Gome Electrical Appliances stock, and the TMT sector. It includes macroeconomic insights, stock performance data, currency trends, and sector updates.

Key Economic Indicators and Outlook

China Manufacturing PMI

The HSBC China manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.1 in May from 48.9 in April, suggesting industrial activity may be bottoming out.
New orders increased, and the employment index hit a three-month high, indicating some stabilization in the economy.
However, production remains sluggish, and external demand continues to decline, especially in exports, which grew only 1.6% YoY in the first four months of 2015.
The Rmb appreciation against the EUR and other currencies is a key factor in the decline of China’s external competitiveness.

USD and EUR Trends

The USD is expected to retreat, which could provide relief to the Chinese economy and help restore external demand.
The ECB’s bond purchase in May and June is a response to seasonal liquidity, not a signal for further easing.
The EUR may regain strength as the European economy improves and the Greek overhang is resolved, potentially putting pressure on the USD.

Gome Electrical Appliances (493.HK) Analysis

1Q15 Performance

Gome reported 9.3% YoY earnings growth, in line with expectations.
Sales increased by 8.38% YoY, driven by 4.2% SSSG (Same-Store Sales Growth) and 54 new stores.
Operating income rose 24% YoY, and net profit margin remained stable at 2.0%.

Positive Aspects

Online GMV grew 107% YoY, showing strong digital growth.
Consolidated gross margin expanded by 60 bps YoY to 18.2%, due to store optimization and mix upgrades.
Operating expenses as a percentage of sales dropped by 70 bps YoY to 16.4%, reflecting improved efficiency.

Negative Aspects

Effective tax rate increased by 11ppts to 33%, due to losses in the online segment.
Net store increase was only 4, lower than the expected pace of 50 for the year.

Investment Recommendation

Price Target Raised to HK$2.5, implying a +15% upside from the current price of HK$2.18.
The DCF model is used for valuation, forecasting 8.7% sales CAGR and 9.2% earnings CAGR from FY14 to FY19.
The target P/E for FY15 is 21.5x, and for FY16 is 17.4x.
The recommendation is BUY, with catalysts including online GMV updates and operation updates for 2Q15.

TMT Sector Highlights

Market Updates

Lenovo reported a 21% revenue increase to US$11.3 billion, driven by PC and mobile phone sales, but net profit dropped 37% due to currency fluctuations and acquisition costs.
Expedia sold its 62.4% stake in eLong for US$671 million, with the remaining shares sold to three other buyers.
Baihe.com received US$240 million in funding and hinted at a potential local IPO.
A Chinese free wifi app with 270M monthly active users raised US$52 million, now valued at US$1 billion.
Mofang Apartment secured US$200 million in funding to expand its "Apartment +" strategy, offering life services alongside long-term rentals.

Stock Market Performance

HK Equities

Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,993, up 1.7%.
H-share Index closed at 14,433, up 2.1%.
Turnover reached HK$142.6 billion, with 26.8% from HSI and 23.7% from CBBC and warrants.

China Equities

CSI 300 Index closed at 5,100, up 3.0%.
Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,813.8, up 1.9%.
Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2,785, up 1.6%.

Asian Equities

Nikkei 225 closed at 20,414, up 0.7%.
Korea KOSPI closed at 2,146, up 1.1%.
Taiwan TWSE closed at 9,645, up 0.1%.
India Sensex closed at 27,644, down 1.1%.

US/European Equities

DJIA closed at 18,232, down 0.3%.
S&P 500 closed at 2,126, down 0.2%.
NASDAQ closed at 5,089, down 0.0%.
UK FTSE 100 closed at 7,032, up 0.3%.
Germany DAX closed at 11,815, down 0.4%.
France CAC40 closed at 5,117, down 0.5%.

Currency and Interest Rates

FX Rates (26 May 2015)

EUR/USD at 1.10, down from 1.12 on 19 May.
USD/JPY at 121.56, up 0.72%.
USD/RMB at 6.20, stable.
USD/HKD at 7.75, stable.
USD/SGD at 1.34, stable.
USD/IDR at 13,187, up 0.37%.
USD/INR at 63.57, down 0.24%.

Interest Rates and Yields

3m US Treasury Yield at 0.01%, stable.
10y US Treasury Yield at 2.21%, up 0.019%.
HIBOR 3m at 0.39%, up 0.001%.
USD LIBOR 3m at 0.28%, up 0.003%.

Major Economic Releases for the Week

18 May (Monday): Singapore’s Non-oil Domestic Exports dropped to -5.0% YoY; Thailand’s GDP at 3.4% YoY.
19 May (Tuesday): Hong Kong’s Unemployment Rate was 3.3%; Euro Zone’s CPI at 0.0% YoY.
20 May (Wednesday): US Housing Starts at 1,020k, Building Permits at 1,063k.
21 May (Thursday): China’s HSBC PMI at 49.1; US Existing Home Sales at 5.22mn.
22 May (Friday): Taiwan’s Unemployment Rate and GDP reported.

Valuation Statistics for Gome (493.HK)

2015E estimates show Sales at HK$66,265 million, Net Profit at HK$1,544 million.
Forward P/E is 19.1x for FY15 and 15.4x for FY16.
EV/EBITDA is 9.3x for FY15 and 8.1x for FY16.
Yield is 1.05% for FY15 and 1.30% for FY16.
ROE is 8.6% for FY15 and 9.8% for FY16.

Conclusion

Despite signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy, overall weakness persists due to slow production and falling external demand.
A correction in USD may provide relief to the Chinese economy and global commodity prices.
Gome is viewed as a BUY, with positive outlook on its restructuring and growth prospects.
The TMT sector shows mixed performance, with some companies like Lenovo and Baihe.com performing well, while others face challenges.
The document highlights the importance of currency trends, economic indicators, and sector performance in shaping investment decisions.