国际劳工组织-2017全球青年就业趋势报告（英文版）-2017.11-130页-2mb

Summary of Global Employment Trends for Youth 2017

Core Content

The Global Employment Trends for Youth 2017 report by the International Labour Office (ILO) provides an in-depth analysis of global and regional trends in youth employment, the challenges they face, and the policy measures required to improve their working conditions and prospects. The report emphasizes the importance of youth employment in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8, 4, and 5, which focus on decent work, education, and gender equality.

Main Trends and Findings

1. Youth Unemployment and Labour Force Participation

• Global Youth Unemployment: The global youth unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly in 2017 to 13.1%, though this is below the 2009 crisis peak of 76.7 million unemployed youth.
• Regional Variations:
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Youth unemployment continues to increase.
  • Europe: Unemployment rates for youth improve, but this trend has been ongoing since 2013.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern/Southern Asia: Youth unemployment rates are likely to remain stable.
  • Other parts of Asia and the Pacific, and Northern America: Unemployment rates are expected to rise slightly.
  • Arab States: Remain the region with the highest youth unemployment rate at 30.0% in 2017.
• Labour Force Participation:
  • Youth (15-24) participation in the labour force declined from 55.0% to 45.7% between 1997 and 2017.
  • The decline is attributed to more young people remaining in education.
  • The trend is expected to reverse between 2017 and 2030, with a projected increase of 41.8 million youth in the labour force.
  • By 2030, 77.0% of the global youth labour force will be in Africa and Asia and the Pacific.
• NEET Rates:
  • An estimated 21.8% of youth are not in employment, education, or training (NEET).
  • Female NEET rates are significantly higher (34.4%) than male (9.8%).
  • In emerging and developing countries, the NEET rate is driven by inactive youth, especially women.
  • In developed countries, NEETs are more likely to be unemployed and seeking work.

2. Employment Quality Concerns

• Working Poverty: Youth are disproportionately affected by working poverty, with 16.7% of young workers in emerging and developing countries living below the extreme poverty threshold.
• Informal Employment:
  • 75% of employed youth globally work in the informal economy.
  • In developing countries, the ratio is as high as 19 out of 20.
• Stable Employment:
  • Young people in higher-income countries are more likely to transition into stable wage employment.
  • In low-income countries, many young workers enter the informal sector or self-employment.

3. Demographic and Migration Impacts

• Aging Population:
  • The global population is aging, with adults aged 65+ constituting 8.3% in 2015 and projected to rise to 12% by 2030.
  • This will increase the demand for young workers to support the elderly.
• Migration:
  • Migration can partially offset the effects of aging populations and shrinking labour forces.
  • Around 70% of migrant flows are people under 30.

4. School-to-Work Transitions

• Average Transition Time:
  • Globally, the average time for a full transition to stable employment is 13.8 months.
  • Females: 14.4 months; Males: 13.7 months.
  • Rural Youth: Have longer transitions (15.4 months) compared to urban youth (13.3 months).
  • Eastern Europe and Central/Western Asia: Have the longest average transition times (17.9 months).
• Education and Transition Duration:
  • Primary graduates: 22.2 months on average.
  • Secondary graduates: 14.3 months.
  • Tertiary graduates: 8.5 months.
  • The duration is 1.6 times longer for primary than secondary, 1.7 times longer for secondary than tertiary, and 2.6 times longer for primary than tertiary.
• Work-Study Combinations:
  • Youth who combine work and study have the shortest transition times.
  • In some regions, over a quarter of young people in school are working or have worked.

5. Technology and Sectoral Shifts

• Technology Impact:
  • The Fourth Industrial Revolution will reshape the nature and quantity of jobs.
  • Technology impacts vary by country, sector, and skill level.
  • Automation and digital technologies may replace or complement jobs.
  • Developed Countries: Remain concentrated in automation and manufacturing.
  • Developing Countries: Continue to rely on low-skilled, low-wage workers.
• Growth Sectors for Youth:
  • Financial services
  • Trade, hotels, and restaurants
  • Transport and storage, information and communications
  • Health services
  • Manufacturing: Jobs are contracting, leading to a shift in employment sectors.
  • Technology and Innovation: Create new opportunities, but require new skills.

6. New Forms of Employment

• Non-Standard Employment:
  • Includes self-employment, informal work, and platform-based jobs.
  • Many young workers are in irregular employment, often self-employed.
• Crowd Work and Zero-Hours Contracts:
  • Evidence from ILO surveys shows these forms of employment are increasing.
  • Youth may have different expectations and outcomes compared to adults.
• Desired Employment:
  • Young people desire stable and secure jobs.
  • They are concerned about job security and the impact of technology on employment.

7. Policies for Better Youth Employment

• Pro-Employment Policies:
  • Macroeconomic and sectoral strategies to stimulate youth employment.
• Skills Development:
  • Building technical and core skills.
  • Promoting lifelong learning and continuous upskilling.
  • Integrating ICT into education.
  • Work-based training and apprenticeships.
• Technology and Labour Market Policies:
  • Use of technology in active labour market programmes.
• Youth Entrepreneurship:
  • Encouraging self-employment and entrepreneurship.
• Labour Rights:
  • Ensuring rights at work for young people.
  • Protecting young workers from exploitation.
  • Improving occupational safety and health (OSH).
• Global Initiatives:
  • The Youth Guarantee Programme in the EU.
  • The Global Jobs Pact and Global Strategy for Youth Employment.
  • Digital Skills are essential for future employment.

Key Information

• Youth unemployment remains high despite a modest economic recovery.
• The transition to decent work is long and difficult for many young people.
• Education level significantly affects transition duration and employment quality.
• Technology and automation will have uneven impacts on different regions and skill levels.
• The informal economy dominates youth employment, especially in developing countries.
• NEET rates are a major concern, particularly in emerging and developing regions.
• The SDGs highlight the importance of youth employment in sustainable development.
• Migration and demographic shifts will influence future youth employment dynamics.
• Policy Recommendations include enhancing education, promoting digital skills, and improving access to formal employment and decent work opportunities.