2025-06-12-花旗集团-Zip有限公司（ZIP）_Zip_Co_Limited（ZIP.AX）_美国发展势头持续令人惊喜_14页_614kb

Zip Co Limited (ZIP.AX) Summary

Core Content and Overview

Zip Co Limited (ZIP.AX) is a digital payments provider that offers point-of-sale credit and instalment payments in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. The company has shown strong performance in the US market, particularly with its Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) model and the upcoming launch of new products like Pay in 8 and Pay in Z. Citi Research maintains a Buy rating and has increased the target price to A$3.10, reflecting positive expectations for future growth and profitability.

Key Financial Highlights

• TTV Growth: US TTV growth reached 40%+ YoY in May 2025, continuing to surprise. Citi upgrades the 4Q TTV forecast to 41% YoY growth and expects 30% YoY TTV growth in FY26e.
• Cash EBTDA: The cash EBTDA is upgraded to A$162 million, with a forecast of A$160 million+ for FY26e. This reflects improved net transaction margins and lower-than-expected bad debts.
• Revenue Growth: Sales revenue is projected to grow from A$677.2 million in 2023 to A$1,467.5 million in FY27e, with a 10-year CAGR of 14% for TTV, reaching A$47 billion by FY35e.
• EBITDA and EBIT: EBITDA (adjusted) is forecasted to grow to A$158.2 million in FY26e, while EBIT is expected to increase to A$111.6 million.
• Balance Sheet: The company is projected to have significant cash reserves, with A$996.7 million in FY26e, and a reduction in net debt from A$2,533.9 million in 2023 to A$1,717.2 million in FY27e.

Investment Strategy and Outlook

• US Business: Strong growth is driven by non-discretionary spending, particularly from platforms like Amazon, and the expansion of BNPL offerings. Citi believes the US growth momentum can be sustained through new products and the Zip Card initiative.
• Australia: The Australian business is expected to benefit from the launch of Zip Plus, which could drive further growth.
• Operating Leverage: Citi expects operating leverage to improve as the company scales, with potential upside to cash EBTDA margins.
• Valuation: The target price of A$3.10 is derived from a blended valuation model, averaging a DCF valuation of A$3.05 and a relative valuation of A$2.45 based on a 20x multiple of FY26e EBTDA. This is a 20% discount to global payment peers due to higher bad debt risk and capital requirements.

Risks and Downside Factors

• Consumer Spending: A decline in consumer discretionary spending could impact growth.
• Bad Debt Risk: Higher-than-expected loss rates remain a concern, although Citi believes they won't return to prior peak levels.
• Regulatory Changes: Potential regulatory changes could increase costs or slow growth.
• Funding Access: Difficulty in accessing funding could affect operations.
• Competition: Intense competition in the BNPL and digital payments space.
• Fraud and Data Theft: Cybersecurity risks could impact the company's reputation.
• Technological Obsolescence: The risk of outdated technology affecting performance.

Upside Risks

• E-commerce Growth: A greater-than-expected shift to e-commerce could benefit Zip's business.
• Merchant Traction: Stronger-than-expected traction with key US merchants could lead to faster customer growth and purchase frequency.
• New Products: The launch of new products like Zip Plus and Pay in Z could drive further share of wallet.
• Operating Leverage: Stronger-than-expected operating leverage could improve margins and profitability.

Analysts and Contact

• Analysts: Siraj Ahmed and Howard Suen
• Contact: Siraj Ahmed, +61-3-8643-9781, siraj.ahmed@citi.com

Valuation Ratios

• PE Ratio: Ranged from -8.3 to 43.9 over the years, with 30.4x in FY27e.
• FCF Yield: Expected to be 6.8% in FY27e.
• Dividend Yield: Remains at 0%.

Market Performance

• Current Price: A$2.69
• Expected Return: 15.2% based on the target price.
• Market Cap: A$3,482 million (US$2,263 million).

Summary of Forecasted Metrics

Conclusion

Citi Research remains optimistic about Zip's future performance, driven by strong US TTV growth, new product launches, and potential for increased share of wallet. While there are risks such as higher bad debts and regulatory changes, the company is positioned to benefit from continued digital transformation and e-commerce expansion. The Buy rating and increased target price reflect confidence in Zip's ability to deliver strong returns over the next 12 months.