2018年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_March_2018_13页_279kb

Summary of ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (March 2018)

Core Content

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area (2018–2020) indicate a continued expansion, with real GDP growth remaining above potential. The growth trajectory is expected to slow gradually over the projection horizon, from 2.5% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2020. Inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2020, driven by underlying inflation pressures as capacity constraints tighten.

Main Points

1. Real Economy Outlook

• Real GDP Growth: Expected to remain robust in the first half of 2018, with a slowdown projected in 2019 and 2020.
  • 2018: 2.4%
  • 2019: 1.9%
  • 2020: 1.7%
• Consumer Confidence and Labour Market: Very high consumer confidence and improving labour market conditions are expected to support growth.
  • Unemployment rate is projected to fall from 8.6% in 2018 to 7.2% in 2020.
• Private Consumption: Expected to grow strongly, supported by rising real wages and improved household net worth.
  • 2018: 1.7%
  • 2019: 1.7%
  • 2020: 1.5%
• Residential Investment: Recovery is expected to continue, but with some loss of momentum due to the mature housing cycle and fading fiscal incentives.
• Business Investment: Recovery is anticipated, albeit at a slowing pace, with rising profit margins and improving capacity utilization.
• Exports and Imports: Euro area exports are projected to remain robust, while imports are expected to grow more strongly. The euro's appreciation may reduce export competitiveness.
  • Exports: 5.2% (2017), 5.3% (2018), 4.1% (2019), 3.8% (2020)
  • Imports: 4.6% (2017), 5.1% (2018), 4.5% (2019), 4.0% (2020)

2. Inflation and Cost Drivers

• HICP Inflation: Expected to rise gradually, averaging 1.4% in 2018 and 2019, and reaching 1.7% in 2020.
• Energy and Food Inflation: Energy inflation is projected to fall in 2018–2019, while food inflation is expected to rise modestly.
  • HICP excluding energy and food: Projected to rise to 1.8% in 2020.
• Wage Growth: Expected to increase from 1.6% in 2017 to 2.7% in 2020, driven by tighter labour markets and supply constraints.
• Unit Labour Costs: Projected to rise from 0.8% in 2017 to 1.8% in 2020, aligned with wage growth due to stable productivity growth.

3. Labour Market Dynamics

• Employment Growth: Projected to decelerate over the projection horizon, with a slowdown expected in 2019 and 2020.
• Labour Productivity: Expected to grow above pre-crisis levels, but slightly below the pre-crisis average in 2019–2020.
  • 2018: 1.0%
  • 2019: 0.8%
  • 2020: 0.9%
• Household Saving Ratio: Expected to increase gradually, reflecting improved financial conditions and a shift toward precautionary savings.

4. Fiscal and Debt Outlook

• Government Budget Balance: Projected to improve over the projection horizon, with the general government budget balance moving from -1.0% to -0.3% of GDP.
• General Government Gross Debt: Expected to decline from 86.7% to 79.7% of GDP.
• Structural Budget Balance: Expected to remain stable, reflecting cyclical adjustments and fiscal policies.

5. International Environment

• Global Economic Growth: Projected to remain robust but below pre-crisis levels, with the US tax reform positively impacting euro area foreign demand.
  • World (excluding euro area) real GDP: 3.8% (2018), 3.7% (2020)
• Euro Area Foreign Demand: Expected to grow from 5.5% in 2017 to 3.6% in 2020.
• Global Trade: Projected to grow more in line with global activity towards the end of the projection horizon, as the procyclical trade-income elasticity declines.

Key Information

• Technical Assumptions: Based on market expectations as of 13 February 2018, including higher oil prices and interest rates.
• Exchange Rates: Euro is expected to appreciate, which may negatively impact export growth.
• Uncertainty: Projections are subject to high uncertainty, particularly over a long horizon.
• Data Sources: Projections use working day-adjusted data and are not endorsed by the ECB Governing Council.

Table Highlights

Notes

• The ECB's projections are not official policy statements and are for internal use.
• The methodology for projection ranges is based on historical deviations and exceptional events.
• The euro's appreciation is expected to dampen export growth, while domestic demand is projected to remain strong.