2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Australia_Selected_Issues_104页_7mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Australia

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of labor market adjustment, inflation targeting, and fiscal framework issues in Australia, focusing on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and the subsequent commodity price bust and mining investment decline. It evaluates how these shocks have affected employment, underemployment, wage growth, and labor productivity, as well as the role of migration and sectoral shifts in the labor market.

Main Findings

Labor Market Adjustment

Unemployment Trends:
- Unemployment rose from a trough of 4% pre-GFC to an average of 5.5% between 2009Q1 and 2016Q2, peaking at 6.25% in mid-2015.
- Unemployment has since declined to below 5.75% as of August 2016.
- Long-term unemployment has increased, with the share of long-term unemployed rising from ~15% in 2009 to ~25% following the mining investment decline.
- The underemployment rate reached ~8.75% in 2016Q3, significantly above the historical average of ~7%, indicating additional labor market slack.
Structural Unemployment:
- There is some evidence of a slight increase in structural unemployment, reflected in the rise of long-term unemployment and a small upward shift in the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) beginning in 2011.
- However, the increase is modest compared to past downturns, and the labor market appears to have adjusted relatively smoothly, supported by labor market reforms in the early 1990s.
Cyclical Adjustment Dynamics:
- The flexibility of average hours worked per worker has helped moderate employment reductions during downturns, preventing a larger rise in unemployment.
- Employment responses to output shocks have moderated over time, with a greater share of adjustment now occurring through changes in hours rather than employment levels.
- The employment response to a 1% GDP shock has declined in recent periods compared to the 1984–1997 period, as shown by impulse response functions (IRFs).
Sectoral Shifts and Productivity:
- The reallocation of labor to expanding sectors has proceeded smoothly, but labor productivity growth has slowed, partly due to the expansion of the services sector.
- The decline in labor productivity growth is partly due to a "between" effect from sectoral shifts, with the services sector showing lower productivity growth compared to goods and business services.
- The share of aggregate hours worked in goods-producing sectors (e.g., mining, manufacturing) has declined since the GFC, while the share in business and household services has increased.
State-Level Adjustments:
- Mining states (Western Australia and Queensland) experienced a strong labor demand pickup during the mining boom, with significant increases in vacancies.
- The labor market adjustment to the boom-bust cycle has been aided by migration, which has played a key role in responding to demand shocks.
- States have adjusted smoothly to the boom-bust cycle, with migration helping to stabilize labor markets.

Wage Growth and Inflation Targeting

Wage Growth:
- Wage growth has remained weak, possibly due to elevated underemployment, which contributes to downward pressure on wages.
- The wage Phillips curve appears to have shifted downward, with wage growth being weaker than expected based on the unemployment gap.
- The decline in full-time hours and rise in part-time work have likely contributed to this weakness in wage growth.
Inflation Targeting:
- The current monetary policy framework faces challenges, particularly in estimating the equilibrium interest rate (EIR) and the effectiveness of inflation-forecast targeting.
- The EIR is estimated to be lower than pre-GFC levels, with the real natural rate of interest declining.
- The paper suggests the need for a "prudent risk-management strategy" to address current economic conditions and potential future shocks.

Fiscal Framework

Fiscal Performance:
- Australia has experienced a "new mediocre" in fiscal performance, characterized by low growth and low inflation.
- The fiscal framework has been assessed for its ability to achieve medium-term fiscal balance and long-term fiscal strategy.
- A cyclically adjusted primary balance is used as a benchmark for fiscal stability, and the paper discusses the implications of various fiscal scenarios.
Reforms and Strategy:
- The paper suggests the need for a new long-term fiscal strategy, emphasizing the importance of clarity in fiscal policy and the role of budget repair at a risky juncture.
- The fiscal framework is evaluated in terms of its ability to manage long-term spending pressures and achieve fiscal sustainability.

Key Questions Addressed

Has the mining investment downturn led to an increase in structural unemployment?
How have cyclical labor market adjustment dynamics changed, and what are the implications for labor market slack and wage growth?
Have sectoral shifts in labor impacted labor productivity?
How did states' labor markets adjust to the mining boom-bust cycle?

Conclusion

Australia's labor markets have adjusted smoothly to recent shocks, but some structural and cyclical weaknesses remain.
Structural unemployment has increased slightly, but the overall labor market has not experienced major dislocation.
The shift in labor allocation has affected productivity growth, with services contributing to slower productivity.
Migration has played a key role in state-level labor market adjustments, helping to moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle.
The paper recommends a prudent fiscal strategy and improved clarity in fiscal policy to ensure long-term sustainability and resilience.

Figures and Data Highlights

Figure 1: Shows key real sector and labor market developments, including unemployment and underemployment trends.
Figure 2: Depicts the structural unemployment and NAIRU estimates.
Figure 3: Illustrates cyclical adjustment dynamics in labor input, showing a shift from employment adjustments to hours adjustments.
Figure 4: Compares the magnitude of employment adjustments across sectors.
Figure 5: Highlights the underemployment rate and its implications for wage growth.
Figure 6: Depicts the wage Phillips curve and its downward shift.
Figure 7: Shows trends in the share of aggregate hours worked across sectors.
Figure 8: Depicts changes in employment across sectors since the terms-of-trade bust.
Figure 9: Compares fiscal balances and debt dynamics.
Figure 10: Highlights labor market developments in states, including the impact of the mining boom.

Tables and Appendices

Table 1: External sector calibration and fiscal policy model details.
Appendix I: Describes the method for fitting a Beveridge Curve.
Appendix II: Details the methodology and data used for analyzing cyclical features of labor market adjustment.
Appendix III: Examines the role of migration in state-level labor market adjustment.