2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Argentina_Selected_Issues_91页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Argentina

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of labor market issues in Argentina, focusing on tax wedge reduction, labor market informality, and gender issues in the labor market. It is prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a periodic consultation with Argentina. The paper evaluates current labor taxation, identifies inefficiencies, and proposes reforms aimed at improving economic performance, formalization, and equity.

Main Issues and Key Findings

1. Tax Wedge in Argentina

• Argentina has one of the highest tax wedges in Latin America, comparable to OECD countries.
• The tax wedge is the difference between the total cost of labor for employers and the take-home income for employees.
• High tax wedges discourage formal employment, especially for low-skilled workers, and hinder competitiveness of firms.
• The tax wedge is highly variable across households, regions, and sectors, and is generally flat and regressive.

2. Structure of Labor Taxation

• Social Security Contributions (SSCs) are a major component of the tax wedge:
  • Employees pay 14% for pensions and 3% for health coverage (obras sociales), totaling 17%.
  • Employers pay 17% for retirement benefits and 6% for health coverage, totaling 23%, with higher rates in service and commerce sectors.
• Personal Income Tax (PIT):
  • Only the top 10% of income earners pay PIT.
  • The minimum taxable income was raised to 1.5 times the average wage in 2016.
  • After all deductions, labor income is taxed only when it exceeds twice the average wage for a single-earner couple with two children.
• Child Allowances (AUH):
  • The main cash transfer to formal workers.
  • Phased out when the parent's wage exceeds twice the average wage (about the 7th decile).
  • The poorest workers receive insufficient support.

3. Formalization Costs

• The net cost of formalization for single individuals is 17% of their net income.
• For the first earner in a couple where the spouse is informal, the cost is 15.5%.
• For the second earner in a couple where the first earner is formal, the cost is 19%.
• The cost increases to 25% for the bottom 10% of the wage distribution.
• The employer's formalization cost averages 24% of the gross wage.
• These costs are not uniform across sectors and regions, and do not seem to boost employment in targeted areas.

Proposed Tax Reform

4. Reform Measures

• Reduce SSCs for retirement benefits to 10% for both employers and employees, eliminating sectoral and regional differences.
• Expand PIT coverage to the top 20% of the wage distribution, reducing the minimum taxable income by 40%.
• Phase out family allowances and introduce income support for the first decile of the wage distribution.
• Gradually phase out the spouse deduction as the spouse's income increases.

5. Estimated Impacts

• The average tax wedge would decrease by 9 percentage points.
• For the bottom 10%, the tax wedge would drop by 20 percentage points.
• The direct fiscal cost of the reform would be 0.3% of GDP, but second-round effects reduce it to 0.1% of GDP.
• Formal employment is expected to increase by 3.4%, and GDP would rise by 1.2% in the long run.
• Formalization costs would decrease by 9 percentage points on average, with employee SSCs being the main contributor.
• The employer's formalization cost would fall by 5 percentage points.
• The reform would be budget-neutral, and reduce informality by 4.5%.

Macroeconomic Impact Assessment

6. Model Used

• A dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous human capital accumulation is used.
• The model captures:
  • Formal and informal labor supply.
  • Human capital investment.
  • Distribution of income and consumption.
  • Government transfers and pensions.

7. Simulation Results

• The reform would increase GDP by 1.2%.
• Formal employment would rise by 3.4%.
• Average wages would increase by 3% in real terms.
• Income at the bottom would increase due to higher prices of informal goods.
• Inequality would remain neutral, as high-skilled workers' earnings also rise.

Structural Reforms and Growth Potential

8. Potential Impact on Growth

• Structural reforms that reduce tax distortions and improve labor market efficiency can boost growth.
• The Mirrlees-Saez model of optimal labor taxation suggests that:
  • The poorest workers should receive negative tax (cash transfers).
  • Middle-income workers should face low but positive marginal effective tax rates.
  • Marginal effective tax rates should increase with income but flatten at high levels to avoid disincentives.
• Argentina's current system is less progressive than the optimal one, especially for middle-income workers who are not taxed under the PIT.

Gender Issues in the Labor Market

9. Labor Market Conditions for Women

• Women are more likely to be in informal employment.
• The spouse deduction in the current system discourages women's participation in the labor market, as their income could eliminate the deduction for the first earner.
• The reform would increase women's incentives to participate in the formal sector.

Conclusion

• The reform proposal aims to reduce the tax wedge, increase formal employment, and improve equity.
• It minimizes fiscal costs, while boosting economic activity.
• The model simulations suggest positive long-term outcomes, including higher GDP and greater formality.
• The reform would also address gender disparities in the labor market by encouraging women's participation.