巴塞罗那国际事务研究中心-欧盟南部地区城市的气候弹性.欧盟绿色协议的机遇（英）-2021.11-38页_636kb

Climate Resilience in Cities of the EU's Southern Neighbourhood: Opportunities for the EU Green Deal

Core Content

This report explores the climate vulnerabilities of urban areas in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, particularly those in the EU's Southern Neighbourhood, and evaluates how the EU Green Deal (EGD) can support cities in building resilience to climate change. It emphasizes the need for a systemic, integrated approach to urban climate resilience, focusing on the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus as a key framework for sustainable urban development.

The study is part of the Cascading Climate Impacts (CASCades) Project, funded by the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme, and highlights the importance of cooperation between the EU and Southern Neighbourhood cities in the context of the EGD's ambitions for systemic transformation.

Main Points

• Climate Vulnerabilities in the Southern Neighbourhood
  Cities in the MENA region face significant climate risks, including rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise. By the end of the 21st century, average temperatures are expected to increase by 1.5°C–2.3°C or even 3.2°C–4.8°C, depending on the climate scenario. This will lead to increased heat stress, energy demand for cooling, and reduced water and food availability.

• Urban Growth and Climate Stress
  The urban population in the MENA region is projected to grow from 35% in the 1960s to 65% today, and is expected to reach 527 million by 2050. This rapid urbanization, often unsustainable, increases pressure on infrastructure and resources, leading to environmental degradation, socio-economic inequality, and limited adaptive capacity.

• Barriers to Urban Resilience
  Weak urban regulation, ineffective climate policies, and limited decentralization hinder the development of resilient cities. Centralized governance systems and incomplete decentralization reforms limit local decision-making and capacity building. In addition, informal urban development and poor public transportation contribute to inefficiencies and increased environmental footprints.

• The Water-Energy-Food Nexus
  The WEF nexus is presented as a crucial approach to improving urban climate resilience. The interdependencies between these sectors mean that addressing one without considering the others can lead to suboptimal outcomes. For example, energy use for desalination and cooling increases demand for water, while water scarcity affects food production and energy generation.

• Need for Systemic Approaches
  The report argues that sectoral approaches alone are insufficient for achieving climate resilience. Instead, it advocates for a systemic and integrated approach that considers the synergies between urban sectors and the WEF nexus. This includes promoting green infrastructure, improving resource efficiency, and enhancing governance structures.

Key Information

• Population Growth: The urban population in the MENA region is expected to grow from 35% in the 1960s to 65% today, with projections reaching 527 million by 2050.
• Climate Projections: By the end of the 21st century, the region could experience temperature increases of 1.5°C–2.3°C, with some cities seeing temperatures rise to 50°C.
• Urban Challenges: Cities face issues such as inadequate drainage, energy inefficiency, and over-reliance on a single mode of transport and water source.
• Decentralization Issues: Despite some reforms, the MENA region remains highly centralized, limiting local autonomy and capacity for effective urban governance.
• EU Engagement: The EU has been supporting urban climate action through the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), but a more systemic approach, particularly around the WEF nexus, is needed to enhance resilience.

Recommendations

• Promote Nexus Approaches: Local governments should explore synergies between the water, energy, and food sectors to achieve resilient and sustainable urban development.
• Strengthen Decentralization: Decentralization reforms need to be more effective and inclusive to empower local authorities and improve decision-making.
• Enhance Governance and Collaboration: The EU should work more closely with Southern Neighbourhood cities to integrate climate resilience into urban planning and policy-making, particularly through the WEF nexus.
• Support Integrated Planning: There is a need for better incentives, knowledge, and practical experience to guide the implementation of integrated urban planning and climate strategies.
• Address Social and Economic Inequality: Improving urban resilience must also address underlying socio-economic challenges to prevent further instability and migration.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the EU Green Deal offers an opportunity to enhance cooperation with Southern Neighbourhood cities around the WEF nexus. A systemic and integrated approach is essential to build climate resilience in urban areas, ensuring sustainable development and long-term security for both the region and Europe.