国际事务研究院-欧盟-非盟贸易和发展伙伴关系：迈向新时代？（英）-2021.11-28页_1mb

Summary of the EU-AU Trade and Development Partnership

Core Content

The EU-AU Trade and Development Partnership has undergone significant evolution since its inception in 2000. The paper evaluates the current state of the partnership, highlighting structural inequalities and the need for a more equitable and effective framework, particularly in the context of post-COVID recovery. It also outlines policy recommendations aimed at enhancing trade and development cooperation.

Main Structural Inequalities and Drivers

1. Economic Disparity

• The EU's GDP is more than ten times that of sub-Saharan Africa, which comprises 48 AU member states.
• While the AU has recorded an average annual growth rate of 4.6% over the past 20 years, this growth is uneven, with some countries like Nigeria and South Africa dragging down the average, whereas others such as Ethiopia and Rwanda have experienced high growth.
• The EU has decades of experience in trade agreements and economic dynamism, while AU member states face weak economic sectors and governance structures.

2. Trade Patterns

• AU member states continue to export raw materials to the EU, which then adds value and re-exports to other regions like Asia and Latin America.
• The EU remains Africa’s largest trading partner, accounting for 31% of Africa’s exports and 29% of its imports in 2018.
• Africa's share of exports to the EU has been declining due to increased competition from other trading partners like China, India, and the Gulf states.

3. Agricultural Sector

• The agricultural sector, which employs 75% of the labor force in AU member states, remains underdeveloped and lacks modernization.
• There is a lack of technical capacity and political will to promote value-added products, which hinders trade and development.
• The EU's focus on strengthening value chains may reinforce the current export model of raw materials rather than promoting local food value chains.

4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• FDI flows to Africa are minimal and largely resource-seeking, reinforcing commodity dependence and undermining domestic manufacturing.
• The EU's new strategy does not include new investment or financing commitments, which has raised concerns about its ability to support sustainable development.

5. Policy Incoherence

• The EU-AU partnership is governed by multiple, overlapping, and often inconsistent frameworks, including the Cotonou Partnership Agreement (CPA), the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES), and various bilateral and regional agreements.
• The CPA, which was due to expire in 2020, was extended until 2021 due to delays in post-Cotonou negotiations, which were attributed to the AU's inability to coordinate its member states effectively.
• The JAES, while aiming to promote a "partnership of equals," has lacked implementation mechanisms and has not effectively shifted the focus from aid to trade and development.

6. Fragmentation and Ineffectiveness

• The fragmentation of trade and development policies has led to a lack of coherence and has not improved the partnership’s performance.
• The EU's emphasis on security and governance over trade and development has shifted the focus of the partnership away from economic cooperation.
• The AU has not been able to assert leadership in trade negotiations, and its institutional capacity to implement continental decisions at the country level is inadequate.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Enhance Coherence and Alignment: The EU should ensure that the new strategy aligns with the AU’s aspirations and includes clear mechanisms for trade and development cooperation.
• Promote Multilateralism: The EU should move away from a preference for bilateral arrangements and support multilateral approaches to trade and development.
• Strengthen AU Institutional Capacity: The AU must improve its institutional capabilities, particularly in implementing AfCFTA and other trade agreements.
• Address Trade Imbalances: The EU should introduce mechanisms to address the trade imbalance and support the development of value-added products in AU member states.
• Improve Coordination: There is a need for better coordination and division of labor between the AU, its Regional Economic Communities (RECs), member states, and other continental institutions to avoid competition for EU resources.
• Support Sustainable Market Access: The AU should develop integrated mechanisms to ensure sustainable market access and fair prices for its producers, particularly in the context of European regulatory standards.

Conclusion

Despite the EU's continued role as the main trading and development partner, the AU-EU partnership has largely failed to achieve its intended objectives. The paper argues that the current framework is inconsistent, fragmented, and not aligned with African priorities. A new, more coherent and equitable strategy is needed to address these challenges and promote sustainable development and trade in the post-COVID era.