20240306-宏源期货-月度策略报告_RKAB签批扰动将逐渐消散_17页_11mb

Summary of Nickel Market Analysis Report

Strategy: Short sell on highs, targeting SHFE and LME nickel.

Key Findings:

• Demand: Stainless steel demand is unlikely to rise significantly due to seasonal factors; three yuan segment shows moderate growth but limited by off-season slowdown; alloy and electroplating demand remains stable but hesitant to buy at high prices.
• Supply: Indonesia's RKAB issuance is accelerating, easing supply uncertainties; global nickel production from electric nickel is increasing, offsetting some short-term concerns.
• Inventory: Inventories have recovered substantially from lows, sufficient to cover supply gaps.
• Price Ranges: SHFE Nickel: 120000-140000 RMB/ton; LME Nickel: 16000-18500 USD/ton.
• Overall Outlook: After supply disruptions fade, nickel prices will revert to fundamentals of supply excess, leading to bearish, weak震荡 (weak震荡 translation means weak oscillation).

Risks: Unexpected surge in EV demand or reduction in Indonesia's mining quota could impact the outlook.