高盛2024年资产管理展望：拥抱新现实（英）-高盛-2023-25页_1mb

Goldman Sachs 2024 Outlook: Embracing New Realities

Key Themes:

• Macroeconomy: Navigating higher-for-longer interest rates and synchronized economic growth challenges. Focus on microeconomic factors, active management, and diversification across asset classes. Policy rates likely remain elevated, increasing risk dispersion.
• Geopolitics: Uncertainty from elections, supply chain shifts toward resilience (re-shoring), and geopolitical risks such as China-U.S. tensions and resource allocation for security.
• Disruptive Technology: AI driving innovation in semiconductors, healthcare, cybersecurity, and productivity gains. Hardware/software investments, deal activity recovery, and AI integration in strategy.
• Sustainability: Climate finance growing, with green bonds surpassing $2.3T. Focus on real-world impact via forward-looking metrics, inclusive growth investing, and decentralized renewable energy market.
• Portfolio Construction: Integrated approach enhancing diversification and risk management. Greater allocation to private markets, including private credit and early-stage financing. Strengthened role for hedge funds and core fixed income.

Investment Considerations:

• Higher Interest Rates: Active selection crucial, boosted by slower growth and credit quality focus in public and private markets. Core fixed income strengthens portfolios.
• Economic Volatility: Tail risks may increase; dynamic strategies, liquidity management, and integrated risk assessment.
• Technology: AI enabling efficient investment analysis, while digitization reshapes healthcare, fintech, and cybersecurity.
• Supply Chains: Shifts toward near-shoring demand real estate investments and logistics.
• Sustainability: Transition-focused companies and alternative investments (private credit, infrastructure) supporting decarbonization goals.

Overall Recommendations:
Proactive asset allocation; resilient positioning through diversification, active management, and technology-driven insights.