2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Brazil_Technical_Assistance_Report_61页_2mb

Summary of the Technical Assistance Report: Supporting Implementation of the Expenditure Rule Through Public Financial Management Reforms in Brazil

Core Content

This report outlines the IMF's technical assistance mission to Brazil, which took place in March 2017, aimed at supporting the implementation of the new Medium-Term Expenditure Rule (MTER) through public financial management (PFM) reforms. The mission was led by Dr. Teresa Curristine and included experts from the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD), as well as representatives from the World Bank and the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI).

The report emphasizes the need for institutional, procedural, and structural reforms to ensure the effective implementation of the MTER, which was enshrined in the Constitutional Amendment No. 95 (2016). The MTER seeks to stabilize real primary expenditures at the 2016 level for the next twenty years, with the possibility of revision after ten years. The rule aims to promote fiscal sustainability, reduce public debt, and improve budget prioritization and efficiency.

Main Views

1. The Need for Fiscal Reform

• Brazil faces significant economic and fiscal challenges, including a deep recession since 2015, political tensions, and a sharp deterioration in the fiscal situation.
• The MTER is a key reform to restore fiscal discipline and credibility, especially as the country struggles with rising debt and declining revenues.
• The rule is expected to help achieve sustained primary surpluses, which are essential for debt stabilization and reduction.

2. Key Features of the New Fiscal Regime

• The MTER imposes multiyear expenditure caps based on inflation rates, with the goal of limiting real spending growth.
• It restricts Congress' ability to revise revenue forecasts upward and shifts decision-making to the budget preparation process.
• The rule includes exemptions for specific expenditures and allows for adjustments if there is a surplus in the primary balance.
• A new Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) was established in December 2016 to monitor compliance, analyze fiscal performance, and advise on reforms.

3. Challenges in Implementation

• The MTER requires structural, institutional, and procedural changes to be fully effective.
• There are budget rigidities from mandatory spending, revenue earmarking, and indexation.
• Social security reform is crucial for long-term fiscal sustainability and adherence to the rule.
• The budget process remains fragmented and short-term oriented, which needs to be reformed to align with the MTER.

Key Recommendations

Improving Budget Flexibility – Reducing Rigidity

• Review mandatory spending and indexation practices to reduce artificial budget flexibility.
• Establish and coordinate a suite of policy processes including spending reviews, efficiency dividends, and tax expenditure reviews.
• Strengthen forecasting of the public-sector wage bill and introduce regular comparisons with private-sector wages.
• Develop a plan to gradually reduce the stock of Restos a Pagar (RAP) to no more than 3% of aggregate expenditures.

Strengthening Medium-Term Fiscal and Budgetary Management

• Develop a fully-fledged Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) by improving macro-fiscal forecasting and publishing a regular fiscal strategy statement (FSS).
• Adopt a credible debt path to guide fiscal policy and reinforce sustainability efforts.
• Set up an iterative macro-fiscal forecasting process to incorporate linkages between fiscal and economic forecasts.
• Improve revenue forecasting methods by assessing the cost or yield of previous tax measures and establishing a forecast review process.
• Establish a Ministerial Fiscal Committee to coordinate fiscal policy and budgeting, supported by a standing Technical Committee.
• Develop a Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) with multiyear expenditure baselines and guidelines on new policy costings.

Embedding the New Expenditure Rule in the Budget Process

• Introduce a medium-term perspective in the budget process by setting top-down expenditure ceilings and aligning priorities with fiscal space.
• Provide regular information on the relationship between LOA (Annual Budget Law) appropriations and the MTER's paid expenditures.
• Publish forward estimates in the annual budget papers and use updated baselines as planning ceilings.

Ensuring Compliance with the New Expenditure Rule

• Enhance fiscal reporting with monthly bulletins, bimonthly execution reports, and four-monthly compliance reports.
• Conduct annual performance assessments against the MTER and the Fiscal Strategy Statement (FSS).
• Focus the IFI on compliance assessment, major fiscal reform studies, and long-term sustainability analysis.
• Consider developing procedures for triggering, implementing, and ending escape clauses and automatic adjustments in case of non-compliance.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of institutional and procedural reforms in supporting the implementation of the MTER. These reforms are expected to improve budget flexibility, fiscal forecasting, and policy coordination. The action plan and recommendations provided in the report are intended to guide Brazil in achieving fiscal sustainability, debt reduction, and more efficient public spending.