2025-05-26-Jefferies-满帮集团（YMM）_集团投资者电话会议要点_7页_103kb

Key Highlights and Executive Summary

Key Highlights:

Full Truck Alliance (YMM) is a Buy-rated stock with a price target of $14.10 and an estimated rating performance of +26%. The company has maintained a stock price around $11.17 with a high-low range of $13.85 - $6.66, a float of 85.3%, and 100.94 ADV MM (USD units), resulting in a market cap of $11.6B.

Management Outlook:

The management reported strong order volume growth in 2025, with a projected increase of 22.3-25.5% YoY. They are prioritizing user scale and the long-term outlook for transaction services shows sustained growth. The average take rate aims for gradual increases to reach 1.8-1.9%, positioning them to achieve their long-term target of 3%.

Strategic Initiatives:

The company is investing significantly in autonomous driving technology and AI capabilities. Their Plus PRC initiative focuses on developing assisted driving systems for OEMs and aims to integrate AI into various operational areas.

Valuation and Key Metrics:

• Market Capitalization: USD 11.6B
• 2025 Price Target (PT): USD14.10 (+26%)
• 2025E EPS: USD 0.70
• 2025E Revenue Streams: Transaction Service Revenue projected to grow by 35-36% YoY.
• Profit Margins: Expected adjusted net income of RMB5.2bn - RMB5.4bn with a net margin of 41-43%.

Risks and Considerations:

Slow average shipper growth due to pandemic and macro headwinds, competition leading to potential loss of market share, and aggressive investment in new initiatives that may not yield immediate returns.

Full Truck Alliance is noted for its strengths in freight matching, rich transaction data, and transaction data.

All content provided is part of a research report by Jefferies from May 26, 2025.