市场速览：等待更优价格-240630-国信证券-18页_752kb

报告摘要

标题：港股市场速览 — 等待更具性价比的买入价格

核心观点
维持“优于大市”评级。
证券分析师：王学恒，张熙。

市场走势

本周港股市场整体表现疲软，恒生指数下跌17%，恒生综指下跌18%。
风格分化：大盘股与中盘股（-17%/-17%）强于小盘股（-28%）。
主要概念板块下跌：恒生科技（-4%）、医疗保健（-31%）、互联网（-28%）。
行业表现：通信（+38%）、基础化工（+19%）等8个行业上涨，其余22个行业下跌。

资金流动

港股通资金整体流出，单日资金强度为-36亿港元（过去一周为+2650万港元）。
资金流入行业：通信、银行、电力公用事业。
资金流出行业：煤炭、电子、传媒、非银金融、消费者服务。

盈利预期

整体微增0.1%，其中20个行业 EPS 上修，7个行业下修。
上修幅度大：煤炭（+58%）、农林牧渔（+16%）、轻工制造（+15%）。
下修显著：钢铁（-165%）、基础化工（-5%）、电力设备新能源（-19%）。

投资建议

短期谨慎：恒指跌破17900点支撑，建议降低beta暴露。
技术面：预计可能于17200点企稳反弹。
中观推荐：维持推荐“恒生公用事业”。

风险提示

经济基本面不确定、国际政治局势、美国财政及美联储货币政策。

English Summary

Key Objectives
Maintain "Outperform" recommendation.

Market Movement

Hong Kong stock market underperformed this week, with the Hang Seng Index down 17% and Hang Seng Composite Index down 18%.
Style differentiation: Large and mid-cap stocks (-17%/-17%) outperformed small-caps (-28%).
Theme indices: Heavyweights like IT and healthcare led declines, while utilities rose slightly (-0.7%).

Capital Flow

Overall outflow: HK Shenzhen Connect trading saw a net outflow, with daily capital intensity at -36B HKD (week ago was +26.5M HKD).
Top inflows: Communication, Banking, Utilities.
Major outflows: Coal, Electronics, Media, Financials, Consumer Services.

Earnings Expectations

EPS overall increased 0.1%, with 20 sectors upgraded and 7 downgraded.
Upgrades: Coal (+58%), Agriculture (+16%), and Light Industries (+15%) were most pronounced.
Downgrades: Steel (-165%), Basic Chemicals (-5%), and New Energy (-19%) saw the biggest cuts.

Investment Recommendation

Be Cautious: HSI dropped below short-term support at 17,900; recommend reducing risk exposure for now.
Technical View: Potential stabilization around 17,200 points.
Thematic Guidance: Continue recommending Utilities.