20171205-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_496kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a market performance summary and investment strategy analysis for the Hong Kong and A-Share markets, with a focus on the potential impact of rural rejuvenation policies and market dynamics in the lead-up to the end of the year.

Key Market Performance Metrics

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	17E EPS (%)	18E EPS (%)	17E P/E	18E P/E
HSI	0.2	1.9	32.4	24.6	9.8	13.0	11.9
HSCEI	0.6	-0.7	22.6	12.0	9.8	8.6	7.8
MXCN	0.0	-0.3	48.0	27.9	15.2	15.0	13.0
SHSZ300	0.5	0.7	21.4	18.3	14.6	15.4	13.4
SHCOMP	-0.2	-1.8	6.6	24.4	13.2	14.6	12.9
SZCOMP	-0.7	-3.7	-3.4	44.6	26.4	25.4	20.1
INDU	0.2	3.2	22.9	15.7	9.5	19.4	17.7
SPX	-0.1	2.0	17.9	23.1	10.0	19.7	17.9
CCMP	-1.1	0.2	25.9	54.3	12.8	24.1	21.4
UKX	0.5	-2.9	2.7	139.6	6.4	14.9	14.0
NYK	-0.5	0.2	18.1	39.1	12.3	19.1	17.0

Investment Strategies

1. A-Share Market: Rural Rejuvenation Policy Focus

Key Time Window: December to January 2018.
Policy Focus: Rejuvenation of rural areas, emphasizing urban-rural development gap narrowing and poverty relief.
Specific Measures:
- Rural land and collective ownership reform.
- Agriculture supply-side reform.
- Collaboration between farming households and industrialized agriculture.
- Development of agritourism.
Investment Ideas:
- Rural Land Reform: Watch companies like Jiangsu Provincial (601952 CH).
- Agriculture Supply-Side Reform: Consider Longping High-Tech (000998 CH), Denghai Seeds (002041 CH), and Dabeinong Technology (002385 CH).
- Collaboration between Farming Households and Industrialized Agriculture: Favor Wen's Foodstuff (300498 CH) and Muyuan Foods (002714 CH).
- Agritourism: Monitor China CYTS Tours (600138 CH).

2. Hong Kong Market: Profit Taking Should Not Affect Uptrend

Market Outlook: Positive for the coming year, driven by earnings growth and valuation upgrades.
Recent Performance: Hong Kong market rose 3.3% in November, with increased volatility. The HSI hit a 30-month high.
Sector Highlights:
- High Growth Sectors: Tech, internet, auto.
- Re-rating Potential Sectors: Insurance, banks, financial intermediaries.
- Policy-Driven Sectors: Healthcare, environmental, education.
Portfolio Recommendations (Dec):
- Buy: Tencent (700 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK), Brilliance China (1114 HK), Wisdom Education (6068 HK).
- Accumulate: CSPC Pharma (1093 HK).
- NR (No Rating): AAC Tech (2018 HK), HKEx (388 HK), BJE Water (371 HK).

Market Dynamics and Risks

Southbound Buying: Increased by 35% MoM in November, with property, bank, insurance, TMT, and auto stocks as top performers.
Liquidity Concerns: HIBOR reached a 9-year high due to expectations of a US interest rate hike in December, potentially affecting Hong Kong liquidity.
Foreign Fund Flows: Expected to rotate back to the US following tax reform approval, which could impact Hong Kong's tech sector.
Key Risks:
- Faster-than-expected interest rate hikes.
- Slower-than-expected earnings growth.

Portfolio Performance

November Return: 6.1% for the model portfolio, outperforming the HSI (3.3%) and HSCEI (-0.3%).
YTD Return: 74.2% for the model portfolio, significantly outperforming the HSI (32.6%) and HSCEI (22.1%).

Rating Definitions

Rating	Definition
Buy	Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Sector Ratings

Rating	Definition
Positive	Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information and opinions are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this report.

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